Lightning/Wind Threat Returns
As wildfires continue to rage across the Central Coast, weather conditions will continue to improve slightly into Saturday. Working for firefighters will be cooler temperatures and higher humidity associated with a deeper marine layer. Working against them will be continued bursts of wind in the afternoon and evening—and looking into the future, the potential for additional dry lightning. Air quality will remain unhealthy and skies shrouded in smoke for the next few days. Do what you can to limit time outdoors and any strenuous activities.
Currently, high pressure to our east is lessening its grip. This is why we are seeing a slightly deeper marine layer and even the return of some low cloudcover/fog at night. The ridge won’t move all that much over the next week and will continue to hold court over the American West. High temperatures will return to seasonal normals, plus or minus a few degrees. Unfortunately, the high will likely pump moisture into our area from Tropical Cyclone Genevieve starting with high clouds on Saturday and a deeper, more unstable plume of moisture Sunday/Monday. It’s looking more likely that we’ll see the return of elevated, high-based thunderstorms to the region. As with the last round(s), not much rainfall is likely but lightning is possible. Unlike the last round, the overall air mass won’t be near as warm/dry in the mid to low levels, so fire danger will be lower. That threat should leave the area by Tuesday with more tranquil weather expected for the rest of next week.
Saturday: Widespread smoke throughout the day. Scattered high clouds on top of that. Coastal highs in the 60s to mid-70s and a range of mid-70s to upper 90s inland. Breezy conditions in the afternoon and early evening.
Overnight: Low clouds fill back in with patchy fog possible. Unhealthy air quality remains. Low's will be in the 50s-60s for most.
***RED FLAG WARNING***
The National Weather Service has issued a Red Flag Warning for the entire KION viewing area from 5 AM Sunday to 5 PM PDT Monday. The Fire Weather Watch is longer in effect.
Elevated moisture and instability from former Hurricane Genevieve will move over the region this weekend through early next week and bring the threat of elevated thunderstorms across much of Northern California. A low pressure system off the coast may enhance and strengthen these thunderstorms allowing some to develop frequent lighting strikes and gusty erratic outflow winds. These erratic gusty outflow winds can lead to potentially dangerous and unpredictable fire behavior on existing wildfires while additional lightning strikes may result in new wildfire starts.
Prevailing winds will be southwest, light in the morning and breezy to locally gusty in the afternoon and evenings. However, erratic gusty outflow winds of 30 to 65 mph may accompany stronger thunderstorms.
The strongest thunderstorms are anticipated to develop Sunday evening through Monday morning. Additional isolated to scattered dry thunderstorms are forecast to develop over land from early Sunday to late Monday. Weaker isolated storms are possible off the coast as early as Saturday. Dry thunderstorms may become wet as the event progresses.
Lightning will likely spark new fires across the region, including remote areas. Wildfires in remote regions may not become apparent until warmer and drier conditions allow them to grow. Erratic gusty outflow winds may result in dangerous and unpredictable fire behavior. Please report potential fires to local CALFIRE or SHERIFF offices.
A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now…or will shortly. A combination of strong winds…low relative humidity…and warm temperatures can contribute to extreme fire behavior.
Sunday: Partly cloudy and smoky with a chance of (mostly dry) thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. Erratic winds, light rain, and lightning possible with storms. Seasonable, with coastal highs in the 60s-70s, 80s-90s inland. Breezy for the inland valleys in the afternoon and evening.
Extended: We will likely continue to see smoke out of the weekend and the chance of (mostly dry) thunderstorms lingers into Monday. Temperatures will remain for most of next week.
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This week's normal temperatures:
--COASTAL CITIES--
LOW: 54ºF
HIGH: 71ºF
--INLAND CITIES--
LOW: 51ºF
HIGH: 86ºF
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-The outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for August 29th – September 4th calls for the likelihood of ABOVE normal temperatures and near normal precipitation. Note: Little to no precipitation typically falls this time of year.
-El Niño/La Niña STATUS: Neutral
-Forecast into Winter: La Niña Watch
-Area drought status: Moderate drought for much of Santa Cruz & Santa Clara Counties, Abnormally dry on the east shore of the bay into San Benito County. No drought classification for much of Monterey County outside of the Gabilan Range.
