First Real Storm Of The Season
A significant storm system will continue to pummel the West Coast to our north through tomorrow. We’ll remain on the very edge of it, picking up some occasional rain in the north (mostly the Santa Cruz Mountains) along with strong southerly flow across the region. The southerly flow will feel warm for most areas Thursday afternoon with highs pushing above normal for all areas except western Santa Cruz County. A developing low will move in from the west and push the stalled atmospheric river/frontal boundary through our area on Friday. It will have lost some strength and moisture by this time, but moderate to briefly heavy rain will be possible along with gusty winds! In addition, high surf will continue to pound the coast into Friday as well.
AIR QUALITY: Good
***GALE WARNING***
..for the near coastal waters from Pigeon Point to Point Pinos (outside of Monterey Bay) in effect until 3AM Friday
Southeast winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 45 kt and seas 9 to 13 ft expected.
..and for the near coastal water from Point Pinos to Point Piedras Blancas in effect through 3AM Friday
Southeast winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 knots and seas of 7-12ft.
*Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.
Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for hazardous conditions.
**WIND ADVISORY**
..for the North Coast of Santa Cruz County in effect until 6AM Thursday
*South winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph expected.
*Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. The combination of wind and moist soils will increase the risk for
downed trees.
Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution.
**HIGH SURF ADVIOSRY**
...for southern Monterey Bay and Big Sur Coast in effect until 6 AM Friday
*Large Breaking waves between 14-19 feet wave along southwest facing beaches and up to 22 ft along well exposed west-facing beaches.
Dangerous swimming and surfing conditions and localized beach erosion. Large waves can sweep across the beach without warning, pulling people into the sea from rocks, jetties and beaches. Sudden immersion in cold water can result in cold water shock even for the most experienced swimmers. Cold water shock can result in dramatic changes in breathing, heart rate and blood pressure, greatly increasing the risk of drowning in rough open waters.
Inexperienced swimmers should remain out of the water due to dangerous surf conditions.
*Beach Hazards Statement*
…for the immediate coast along the north side of Monterey Bay.
A moderate period northwest swell will result in a more energetic surf zone resulting in an increased risk of sneaker waves and rip currents. Breaking waves of 10 to 13 ft are expected with some potential for breaking waves up to 15 ft to develop
*Dangerous swimming and surfing conditions. Large waves can sweep across the beach without warning, pulling people into the sea from rocks, jetties, and beaches. Sudden immersion in cold water can result in cold water shock even for the most experienced swimmers. Cold water shock can result in dramatic changes in breathing, heart rate and blood pressure, greatly increasing the risk of drowning in rough open waters.
Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous swimming conditions.
Overnight: Mostly cloudy with slight chance of rain in the north—mainly just the Santa Cruz Mountains. Lows in the 40s to low 50s for most areas with the southern valleys dipping into the 30s. Gusty northerly winds on the exposed coast and over the hills and breezy conditions in the valleys.
Thursday: Partly cloudy with a few showers possible in Santa Cruz County. Highs in the upper 50s to low 70s on the coast and 60s to low 70s inland. Gusty southerly winds at times.
Friday: Widespread rain—heavy at times, especially in the coastal mountains. Gusty southerly winds at times. Rain should begin around the bay by late morning and last into the evening. Rain onset will be later for southern inland areas. Up to 5” possible in the coastal mountains with most cities around the bay receiving 0.5” – 2”. Some minor flooding possible. Gusty winds may knock down a few trees leading to power outages.
Extended: Rain breaks to showers overnight into Saturday morning, becoming more isolated late. Winds ease. A trailing system will bring new rain chances on Sunday, perhaps “reactivating” the atmospheric river which will have sloshed to our south. There is some potential for another round of moderate to heavy rain. Shower chances continue through Tuesday, then start to look less likely by mid-week.
*Note: Any alerts from the National Weather Service in Monterey will be noted in italics above. Alerts may be edited for brevity or local clarification
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This week's normal temperatures:
--COASTAL CITIES--
LOW: 45ºF
HIGH: 63ºF
--INLAND CITIES--
LOW: 40ºF
HIGH: 66ºF
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-The outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for November 28th – December 4th calls for the likelihood of BELOW normal temperatures and BELOW normal precipitation.
- ENSO (El Niño/La Niña) STATUS: La Niña Watch
- ENSO Forecast: Transition to La Niña into the fall and persist through the winter months.
- Area drought status: Abnormally dry for areas around Monterey Bay northward. Drought-free elsewhere.
- Monterey Bay Sea Surface Temperature as of November 21st : 53.3ºF (avg of 6 buoys) [November Average: 56.6ºF]
