Increasing Fire Weather Concerns
The first concern is fire danger in the coming days. While the weather won’t cause any fires—no lightning is expected—the weather will help spread any fires that start, due to the dry, windy conditions expected. Winds are likely to peak over the region on Wednesday morning, especially in the higher elevations, but may continue into Thursday morning. All the while, expect slightly warm conditions.
AIR QUALITY: Good to Moderate
***RED FLAG WARNING***
…Santa Cruz County, Santa Clara County, and the hills & mountains of Monterey & San Benito Counties in effect from 11 AM Tuesday to 7 AM PST Thursday
Strong north to northeast winds are being observed across the region as a deep trough moves over the Rockies. These dry offshore winds are causing the dew point and relative humidity to quickly drop. Despite the recent rain, regional RAWS stations are reporting 10- hour fuel moistures have dropped back into the single digits and continuing to dry. By Tuesday night, encroaching high pressure from the Eastern Pacific will tighten the gradient and strengthen the winds. Gusts are expected to reach up to 50 mph across the higher elevations with RH recoveries in the 30-45% range Tuesday night. Winds will gradually decrease through the day Wednesday, but with the RH dropping into the high teens, fire weather conditions will remain critical through Wednesday night.
* WINDS...North 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.
* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 14 percent.
* LIGHTNING...None.
* IMPACTS...The combination of gusty winds and low humidity can cause fire to rapidly grow in size and intensity. Outdoor burning is not recommended. Despite recent wetting rain, we are expecting a widespread and prolonged offshore wind event which will dry fuels out very quickly.
A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now...or will shortly. A combination of strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can contribute to extreme fire behavior.
Rest of Tuesday: Mostly sunny with a few passing high clouds along with a few mid-level wave clouds. Seasonably warm with coastal highs in the mid-60s to mid-70s with upper 60s to upper 70s inland. Breezy northerly winds for most areas becoming windy especially over the higher elevations with increased fire danger.
Overnight: Mostly clear with a few high clouds passing through. Expect lows in the low to mid 40s on the coast and low 30s to low 40s for inland valleys. Gusty northerly winds, especially over the higher terrain
Wednesday: Gusty winds over the mountains and on the exposed coast into the morning. Mostly sunny with a few high clouds passing through. Highs in the 60s-70s for most areas. Dry, northerly winds will remain gusty at times throughout the day.
Extended: Winds begin to ease in to Thursday, with temperatures dropping below normal on Thursday morning. Highs, on the other hand, will remain seasonable to slightly warm through Friday, then begin to cool into the weekend as onshore flow redevelops. Clouds will increase through the weekend as a system passes by. A second system is more likely to bring rain on or around Monday/Veterans Day.
*Note: Any alerts from the National Weather Service in Monterey will be noted in italics above. Alerts may be edited for brevity or local clarification
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This week's normal temperatures:
--COASTAL CITIES--
LOW: 47ºF
HIGH: 68ºF
--INLAND CITIES--
LOW: 42ºF
HIGH: 72ºF
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-The outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for November 13th – 19th calls for the likelihood of BELOW normal temperatures and ABOVE normal precipitation.
- ENSO (El Niño/La Niña) STATUS: La Niña Watch
- ENSO Forecast: Transition to La Niña into the fall and persist through the winter months.
- Area drought status: Abnormally dry for areas around Monterey Bay northward. Drought-free elsewhere.
- Monterey Bay Sea Surface Temperature as of November 5th : 55.4ºF (avg of 7 buoys) [November Average: 56.6ºF]
