Dry Winds
Dry, northerly winds continue in the hills overnight, keeping fire danger elevated. We’ll remain sandwiched in between a big ridge out over the Pacific and general troughing over the Intermountain West. The ridge will bulge our way on Monday, warming temps, but a shortwave riding down the back side of the trough will kick winds back offshore Tuesday into Wednesday.
AIR QUALITY: Good to Moderate
*Beach Hazards Statement*
… for north and west-facing beaches of Monterey & Santa Cruz Counties from 3PM Sunday until 7PM Monday
*Long period northwest swell will result in an energetic surf zone resulting in an increasing risk of sneaker waves and increasing rip currents, then transitioning to a larger surf with strong rip currents, long beach run-up and large shore break on steeper beaches. Breaking waves of 10 to 14 feet are expected.
*Large waves can sweep across the beach without warning, pulling people into the sea from rocks, jetties, and beaches. Sudden immersion in cold water can result in cold water shock even for the most experienced swimmers. Cold water shock can result in dramatic changes in breathing, heart rate and blood pressure, greatly increasing the risk of drowning in rough open waters.
Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous swimming conditions.
Overnight: Clear and cool with gusty northerly winds at times, especially over the hills. Lows in the 40s to around 50ºF on the coast and 30s-40s inland.
Monday: Mostly sunny and warmer with coastal highs in the mid-60s to mid-70s and low to mid-70s inland. Winds taper off overall, but may remain gusty at times in the hills. Typical afternoon breezes will also kick up.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny with a few passing high clouds. Slightly cooler, with coastal highs in the low 60s to low 70s and 70s mainly inland. Breezy northwesterly onshore winds becoming windy in the valleys late. Then, dry, northerly winds over the hills late.
***RED FLAG WARNING***
…Santa Cruz County, Santa Clara County, and the hills & mountains of Monterey & San Benito Counties in effect from 11 AM Tuesday to 7 AM PST Thursday
Strong north to northeast winds are being observed across the region as a deep trough moves over the Rockies. These dry offshore winds are causing the dew point and relative humidity to quickly drop. Despite the recent rain, regional RAWS stations are reporting 10- hour fuel moistures have dropped back into the single digits and continuing to dry. By Tuesday night, encroaching high pressure from the Eastern Pacific will tighten the gradient and strengthen the winds. Gusts are expected to reach up to 50 mph across the higher elevations with RH recoveries in the 30-45% range Tuesday night. Winds will gradually decrease through the day Wednesday, but with the RH dropping into the high teens, fire weather conditions will remain critical through Wednesday night.
* WINDS...North 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.
* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 14 percent.
* LIGHTNING...None.
* IMPACTS...The combination of gusty winds and low humidity can cause fire to rapidly grow in size and intensity. Outdoor burning is not recommended. Despite recent wetting rain, we are expecting a widespread and prolonged offshore wind event which will dry fuels out very quickly.
A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now...or will shortly. A combination of strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can contribute to extreme fire behavior.
Extended: Offshore winds peak overnight Tuesday into Wednesday, increasing fire danger. Winds will ease for the rest of the week with cool mornings and warm afternoons for most areas. Clouds increase this weekend as a series of systems approach. We could be looking at rain returning on or around the 11th.
*Note: Any alerts from the National Weather Service in Monterey will be noted in italics above. Alerts may be edited for brevity or local clarification
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This week's normal temperatures:
--COASTAL CITIES--
LOW: 47ºF
HIGH: 68ºF
--INLAND CITIES--
LOW: 42ºF
HIGH: 72ºF
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-The outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for November 11th – 17th calls for the likelihood of BELOW normal temperatures and near normal precipitation.
- ENSO (El Niño/La Niña) STATUS: La Niña Watch
- ENSO Forecast: Transition to La Niña into the fall and persist through the winter months.
- Area drought status: Abnormally dry for areas around Monterey Bay northward. Drought-free elsewhere.
- Monterey Bay Sea Surface Temperature as of November 4th : 54.9ºF (avg of 7 buoys) [November Average: 56.6ºF]
