Increasing Fire Danger
Northwest flow will follow Wednesday’s weather system and it will be gusty at times into early Thursday. Then, in response to a system moving in from the north, the winds will shift to the north and eventually northeast overnight into Friday. These northeasterly winds will gusty over the mountains and increasingly dry as time goes on. Winds may occasionally gust down into the lower elevations as well, especially along the Santa Cruz Coast. Dry air and gusty winds will make for critical fire conditions from late Thursday into early Saturday and a RED FLAG WARNING is in place for most of the viewing area. The dry air mass settling in will also mean cool mornings and warm afternoons, especially from Friday on.
AIR QUALITY: Good
Overnight: Scattered low clouds around the bay, otherwise clear. Breezy at times along the coast and into the valleys. Lows in the upper 40s to low 50s for most areas. .
Thursday: Becoming mostly sunny with a few high clouds passing through. Gusty northwesterly winds at times becoming more northerly late. Cooler, with coastal highs in the low 60s to low 70s and mid-60s to mid-70s inland.
***GALE WARNING***
…for the near coastal waters from Point Pinos to Point Piedras Blancas in effect from 9AM Thursday until 3AM Friday
*Northwest winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt and seas 7 to 12 ft expected.
…and for the near coastal waters from Pigeon Point to Point Pinos in effect from 9AM Thursday until 3AM Friday
*Northwest winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 45 kt and seas 8 to 13 ft expected.
…and for Monterey Bay in effect from 3PM Thursday until 3AM Friday
*Northwest winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 40 kt expected.
*Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.
Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for hazardous conditions.
***RED FLAG WARNING***
…for all inland areas and coastal mountains of Monterey, Santa Cruz, San Benito, and Santa Clara Counties and now including coastal Santa Cruz County in effect from 11PM Thursday through 5PM Saturday
Gusty north-northeast winds are expected to develop as an "inside slider" system moves into the Great Basin this weekend. Humidities will still be on the higher end at the start of the event on Thursday, but are expected to quickly dry out as low as 10% Friday and Saturday. Peak winds are expected overnight Thursday night into Friday morning for the North Bay and Bay Area. Most areas across the region will be affected to some degree, with likely exceptions being the immediate Big Sur coast, Monterey Bay coast, and the Marin/Sonoma coast. Winds largely on the order of 25-35 mph can be expected with gusts to 45 mph...isolated gusts to 65 mph across the highest terrain and ridgetops, most notably the North Bay Interior Mountains and the Diablo Range.
*WINDS...North and northeast 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph with potential for gusts up to 65 mph along ridgetops and the highest terrain of the northern mountains
*HUMIDITY…As low as 10-15 percent.
*LIGHTNING...None.
* IMPACTS...The combination of gusty winds and low humidity can cause fire to rapidly grow in size and intensity. Outdoor burning is not recommended. Despite recent cool weather and high humidity, we are expecting a widespread and prolonged offshore wind event which will likely dry fuels out very quickly given their volatility over the past several weeks.
A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now...or will shortly. A combination of strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can contribute to extreme fire behavior.
**WIND ADVISORY**
…for the Diablo Range in Santa Clara County in effect from 11PM Thursday until 11PM Friday.
*North winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph expected.
*Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.
*These are dry, offshore winds that will increase fire danger. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect from 11 PM Thursday through 5 PM Saturday.
Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.
Friday: Mostly sunny with gusty north-northeasterly winds at times. Warmer, with highs in the upper 60s to 70s for most areas.
Extended: Gusty north-northeasterly offshore winds will taper off early on Saturday. The dry air mass that settles in will make for chilly mornings but warm highs through the weekend and into next week. Winds will be much lighter through the period, though the air will remain dry.
*Note: Any alerts from the National Weather Service in Monterey will be noted in italics above. Alerts may be edited for brevity or local clarification
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
This week's normal temperatures:
--COASTAL CITIES--
LOW: 51ºF
HIGH: 71ºF
--INLAND CITIES--
LOW: 46ºF
HIGH: 78ºF
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
-The outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for October 24th – 30th calls for the likelihood of near normal temperatures and ABOVE normal precipitation.
- ENSO (El Niño/La Niña) STATUS: La Niña Watch
- ENSO Forecast: Transition to La Niña into the fall and persist through the winter months.
- Area drought status: Abnormally dry for areas around Monterey Bay northward. Drought-free elsewhere.
- Monterey Bay Sea Surface Temperature as of October 17th : 58.4ºF (avg of 7 buoys)
