Late Week Fire Danger
A weak frontal system will pass by on Wednesday, but besides passing clouds, there won’t be much to get excited about. There is a teeny tiny chance of a few sprinkles, so there’s that. After that system passes through, a cold low pressure center will dig south toward the Great Basin on Thursday. It will set up a strong pressure gradient against a ridge out over the Pacific and winds will begin to increase. At first, the winds will be northwesterly onshore and carry some moisture. By Friday morning, the winds switch more to the north-northeast and strengthen over the hills. This much dryer offshore flow will increase the fire danger significantly. If a fire starts, it could spread rapidly due to the conditions. Winds will be gusty at times throughout the day Friday, then die off early Saturday.
AIR QUALITY: Good
*Beach Hazards*
…for the immediate coast of Monterey and Santa Cruz Counties through Wednesday evening.
*A moderate period northwest swell will result in a more energetic surf zone. Breaking waves of 6 to 8 feet are expected.
*Large waves can sweep across the beach without warning, pulling people into the sea from rocks, jetties, and beaches.
Inexperienced swimmers should stay out of the water. Observe the ocean for 20 minutes before relaxing near the water. Know where your lifeguards are, obey their instructions, and never turn your back on the ocean!
Overnight: Patchy low clouds & fog around the coast. Expect lows in the 50s for most areas, though some valleys will dip into the 40s.
Wednesday: Periods of passing clouds with an isolated chance for sprinkles. Slightly cool with coastal highs in the mid-60s to mid-70s—warmest on the north side of the bay—and mid-70s to low 80s inland. Breezy northwesterly onshore flow becoming windy in the valleys late in the day.
Thursday: A few low clouds in the morning with drizzle possible on north/west-facing exposures. Then becoming mostly sunny with a few high clouds passing through. Cooler, with coastal highs in the low 60s to low 70s and mid-60s to mid-70s inland. Gusty northwesterly winds at times becoming more northerly late.
***RED FLAG WARNING***
…for all inland areas and coastal mountains of Monterey, Santa Cruz, San Benito, and Santa Clara Counties in effect from 11PM Thursday through 5PM Saturday
Gusty north-northeast winds are expected to develop as an "inside slider" system moves into the Great Basin this weekend. Humidities will still be on the higher end at the start of the event on Thursday, but are expected to quickly dry out as low as 10% Friday and Saturday. Peak winds are expected overnight Thursday night into Friday morning for the North Bay and Bay Area. Most areas across the region will be affected to some degree, with likely exceptions being the immediate Big Sur coast, Monterey Bay coast, and the Marin/Sonoma coast. Winds largely on the order of 25-35 mph can be expected with gusts to 45 mph...isolated gusts to 65 mph across the highest terrain and ridgetops, most notably the North Bay Interior Mountains and the Diablo Range.
*WINDS...North and northeast 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph with potential for gusts up to 65 mph along ridgetops and the highest terrain of the northern mountains
*HUMIDITY…As low as 10-15 percent.
*LIGHTNING...None.
* IMPACTS...The combination of gusty winds and low humidity can cause fire to rapidly grow in size and intensity. Outdoor burning is not recommended. Despite recent cool weather and high humidity, we are expecting a widespread and prolonged offshore wind event which will likely dry fuels out very quickly given their volatility over the past several weeks.
A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now...or will shortly. A combination of strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can contribute to extreme fire behavior.
**WIND ADVISORY**
…for the Diablo Range in Santa Clara County in effect from 11PM Thursday until 11PM Friday.
*North winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph expected.
*Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.
*These are dry, offshore winds that will increase fire danger. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect from 11 PM Thursday through 5 PM Saturday.
Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.
Extended: Gusty north-northeasterly offshore winds will persist on Friday with very dry conditions. Fire danger will be high! Temperatures warm slightly with most areas in the upper 60s to mid-70s. However, with the dry air mass settling in, morning temperatures will drop with weekend lows expected to be in the upper 30s to mid-40s on the coast and widespread 30s inland. Winds ease on Saturday morning and we’ll settle in to a quiet but dry fall-like pattern with cool mornings and warm afternoons through mid-week next week.
*Note: Any alerts from the National Weather Service in Monterey will be noted in italics above. Alerts may be edited for brevity or local clarification
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This week's normal temperatures:
--COASTAL CITIES--
LOW: 51ºF
HIGH: 71ºF
--INLAND CITIES--
LOW: 46ºF
HIGH: 78ºF
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-The outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for October 23rd – 29th calls for the likelihood of near normal temperatures and ABOVE normal precipitation.
- ENSO (El Niño/La Niña) STATUS: La Niña Watch
- ENSO Forecast: Transition to La Niña into the fall and persist through the winter months.
- Area drought status: Abnormally dry for areas around Monterey Bay northward. Drought-free elsewhere.
- Monterey Bay Sea Surface Temperature as of October 16th : 58.4ºF (avg of 7 buoys)
