July 4th Heat Inland, Mild at the Coast
Excessive heat and critical fire danger will continue to dominate the forecast through the weekend. High pressure continues to build in from the west, bringing an excessively hot air mass and squashing our marine layer back to the immediate coast. Higher moisture values did sneak in from the south on Wednesday, so that may keep some fog in the coastal forecast on Thursday, but otherwise, the marine layer will have difficulty fighting back against the extreme ridge into the weekend. Temperatures will likely peak Saturday, some 10-15ºF above normal on the coast and 15-25ºF+ inland! Then, the ridge begins to slowly move east and we will *slowly* cool down in response. More in the extended forecast below.
AIR QUALITY: Good
***RED FLAG WARNING***
…for the Santa Cruz Mountains in effect EXTENDED to 9PM Saturday
North-northeast winds are expected to develop this evening across the ridges of North Bay and East Bay, Santa Cruz Mountains, along with the Marin and Sonoma Coastal Ranges. Dry, offshore winds will persist Monday evening through Tuesday evening over all these areas, and continue through Wednesday afternoon across the North Bay interior mountains, which will result in elevated fire weather concerns. Gusts of 30 to 40 mph will be possible across ridgetops and higher peaks.
*Northwest 5 to 10 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.
*Relative Humidity as low as 10 percent.
* Temperatures up to 107.
*Critical fire weather conditions. Increased chance for fire starts in dry, open grasses. Outdoor burning and especially fireworks are not recommended.
A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now...or will shortly. A combination of strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can contribute to extreme fire behavior.
***EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING***
… for the mountains and higher elevation valleys (above 250ft) of Monterey County, the mountains and higher elevations valleys (above 500ft) of San Benito County, the Santa Cruz Mountains, and the KION coverage area in Santa Clara County in effect NOW extended until 11PM Wednesday, July 10th.
-Dangerously hot conditions with temperatures in the upper 90s to 115F expected. Limited overnight relief with low temperatures in the mid 60s to low 80s. Resultant widespread Major HeatRisk, with areas of Extreme HeatRisk.
Most individuals will be at risk for heat-related illnesses without effective cooling or adequate hydration, especially with prolonged outdoor exposure. Without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration, heat-related illnesses including heat stroke will be a risk to everyone. Overnight lows will warm as well leading to poor relief from the heat specifically in elevated terrain and interior areas.
*An exceptionally dangerous situation is expected to unfold during this potentially historic and deadly heat event. Several days of temperatures well above normal will lead to compounding effects among people and infrastructure, with the possibility of numerous heat related fatalities. It cannot be stressed enough that while one day at these temperatures may be manageable for some, an event of this scale, magnitude, and longevity will likely rival anything we've seen in the last 18 years. Heat is the number one weather related killer in the United States. By this weekend, it is VERY LIKELY that we add to that statistic if preparations are not taken seriously.
Drink plenty of fluids, stay cool, stay out of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors.
Beat the heat and check the backseat! Do not leave young children and pets in unattended vehicles. Car interiors will reach lethal temperatures in a matter of minutes.
Take extra precautions when outside. Wear lightweight and loose fitting clothing. Try to limit strenuous activities to the early morning or evening. Take action when you see symptoms of heat
exhaustion and/or heat stroke.
To reduce risk during outdoor work, the Occupational Safety and Health Administration recommends scheduling frequent rest breaks in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone overcome by heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location. Heat stroke is an emergency! Call 9 1 1.
**HEAT ADVISORY**
…for the lower elevations of Santa Cruz County and for the lower elevation inland valleys of Monterey & San Benito Counties in effect NOW extended until 11PM Wednesday, July 10th.
*Temperatures in the 80s to mid 90s
*Those sensitive to heat, such as the homeless, elderly, children, and pets will be at risk for heat-related illnesses. Those without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration will be at the greatest risk.
*An exceptionally dangerous situation is expected to unfold over the next week as we enter a potentially historic and deadly heat event for inland areas. Several days of temperatures well above normal will lead to compounding effects among people and infrastructure, with the possibility of numerous heat related fatalities. It cannot be stressed enough that while one day at these temperatures may be manageable for some, an event of this scale, magnitude, and longevity will likely rival anything we've seen in the last 18 years. Heat is the number one weather related killer in the United States. By this weekend, it is VERY LIKELY that we add to that statistic if preparations are not taken seriously..
Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors.
Beat the heat and check the backseat! Do not leave young children and pets in unattended vehicles. Car interiors will reach lethal temperatures in a matter of minutes.
Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. When possible reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat
stroke. Wear lightweight and loose fitting clothing when possible. To reduce risk during outdoor work, the Occupational Safety and Health Administration recommends scheduling frequent rest breaks in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone overcome by heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location. Heat stroke is an emergency! Call 9 1 1.
Thursday (Independence Day): Sunny and warmer with coastal highs in the mid 60s to around 80ºF and mid 80s to around 114ºF inland. Windy up valleys late in the day.
Overnight: Lingering low clouds just to our west, over open water, will have a chance to fill the bay. Partly cloudy conditions and patchy fog (dense in spots) possible for coastal and a few near coastal cities by dawn. Most will remain under clear skies. Lows will be mild to warm, with mid to upper 50s for most. Far interior locations will only drop into the 60s and 70s.
Friday: Sunny and hot with coastal highs in the 70s-80s, and 90s to around 116ºF inland. Windy up valleys late in the day.
***RED FLAG WARNING***…for the southern valleys and higher terrain of Monterey County and the higher terrain and valleys of San Benito County in effect from 5AM Friday through 9PM Saturday.
The Fire Weather Watch for Monterey and San Benito counties has been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning for 5 AM Friday through 9 PM Saturday. While the winds are marginal, this decision was made due to a combination of continued very low RH in the teens, very dry fuels, and the 4th of July holiday. Also, gusts up to 25 mph will be possible across ridgetops and higher peaks. Fuels continue to cure and will see no relief through this weekend. In fact, 10 and 100 hour fuels are near historic levels in the North Bay in regard to the energy release component going into the weekend. The same fuels in the Diablo Range and Santa Cruz Mtns aren't far behind.
The Fire Weather Watch is no longer in effect.
*Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.
*Relative humidity as low as 7 percent.
* Temperatures up to 112.
*Critical fire weather conditions. Increased chance for fire starts in dry, open grasses. Outdoor burning and especially fireworks are not recommended.
A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now...or will shortly. A combination of strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.
Extended: Temperatures peak on Saturday and then will slowly cool into the new week. Low clouds are likely to return to the coast—as early as Sunday and could get thick as we head into the early portion of the week. Inland areas will remain hot and finally cool down to within 5ºF of normal by Wednesday.
*Note: Any alerts from the National Weather Service in Monterey will be noted in italics above. Alerts may be edited for brevity or local clarification (in parenthesis).
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This week's normal temperatures:
--COASTAL CITIES--
LOW: 53ºF
HIGH: 68ºF
--INLAND CITIES--
LOW: 51ºF
HIGH: 84ºF
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-The outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for July 11th – 17th calls for the likelihood of ABOVE normal temperatures and near normal* precipitation.
*Note: little to no precipitation typically falls this time of year
- ENSO (El Niño/La Niña) STATUS: La Niña Watch
- ENSO Forecast: Transition to La Niña by late summer.
- Area drought status: Currently drought-free
- Monterey Bay Sea Surface Temperature* as of July 4th : 58.6ºF
(Historic June AVG: 58.4ºF) -- *average of three buoys
