Long Duration Inland Heat
Heat will be the big story this holiday week and perhaps through the weekend! A massive ridge of high pressure will build in from the west through mid-week and then settle in over the area for a few days. The strong ridge will have hot temperatures aloft, coupled with compressional warming from it being directly overhead, and suppression of the marine layer & sea breeze. This is all a recipe for hot temperatures, especially inland where widespread 90s to 100s can expected with some potential for the exceedance of 110ºF in some of the typical hot spots. The coast won’t see extreme heat, but it will be quite warm. Flow will remain onshore, but it will be light, so while the immediate coast may stay temperate, it will warm quickly as you head away from the beach or up in elevation. One of the biggest impacts of this heat wave will be its duration. Right now, it appears that inland highs will be 10ºF+ above normal for at least 7 days. This will wear on even healthy people. Fire danger will also remain very high throughout the week! Initially, some offshore flow over the hills into Tuesday will push fire weather conditions critical for the Santa Cruz Mountains where a Red Flag Warning will be in effect. For the rest of the week, hot, dry conditions will continue with some wind in the afternoons.
AIR QUALITY: Good to Moderate
***RED FLAG WARNING***
…for the Santa Cruz Mountains in effect from 11PM Monday until 11PM Tuesday
North-northeast winds are expected to develop this evening across the ridges of North Bay and East Bay, Santa Cruz Mountains, along with the Marin and Sonoma Coastal Ranges. Dry, offshore winds will persist Monday evening through Tuesday evening over all these areas, and continue through Wednesday afternoon across the North Bay interior mountains, which will result in elevated fire weather concerns. Gusts of 30 to 40 mph will be possible across ridgetops and higher peaks.
*Northwest around 15 mph.
*As low as 22 percent.
*Temperatures up to 99.
*Critical fire weather conditions. Increased chance for fire starts in dry, open grasses. Outdoor burning and especially fireworks are not recommended.
A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now...or will shortly. A combination of strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can contribute to extreme fire behavior.
Overnight: Expect mostly cloudy skies on the coast with low clouds/fog and clear skies inland. Partial clearing expected by dawn. Lows in the low 50s on the coast and low 50s to upper 50s for inland valleys and 60s-70s up in the hills.
Tuesday: Sunny with some fog possible along the immediate coast. Warmer, with coastal highs in the upper 60s to around 80ºF—warmest on the north side of the bay—and 80s to around 106ºF inland. Breezy at times over the northern mountains and then windy up-valleys in the afternoon and early evening.
***EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING***
… for the mountains and higher elevation valleys (above 250ft) of Monterey County, the mountains and higher elevations valleys (above 500ft) of San Benito County, the Santa Cruz Mountains, and the KION coverage area in Santa Clara County in effect from 11AM Tuesday extended until 8PM Sunday
*Dangerously hot conditions with temperatures in the upper 90's to 110F expected. Limited overnight relief with low temperatures in the mid 60s to low 80s. Resultant widespread Major HeatRisk, with areas of Extreme HeatRisk.
*Most individuals will be at risk for heat-related illnesses without effective cooling or adequate hydration, especially with prolonged outdoor exposure. Without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration, heat-related illnesses including heat stroke will be a risk to everyone. Overnight lows will warm as well leading to poor relief from the heat specifically in elevated terrain and interior areas.
Drink plenty of fluids, stay cool, stay out of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors.
Beat the heat and check the backseat! Do not leave young children and pets in unattended vehicles. Car interiors will reach lethal temperatures in a matter of minutes.
Take extra precautions when outside. Wear lightweight and loose fitting clothing. Try to limit strenuous activities to the early morning or evening. Take action when you see symptoms of heat
exhaustion and/or heat stroke.
To reduce risk during outdoor work, the Occupational Safety and Health Administration recommends scheduling frequent rest breaks in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone overcome by heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location. Heat stroke is an emergency! Call 9 1 1.
**HEAT ADVISORY**
…for the lower elevations of Santa Cruz County and for the lower elevation inland valleys of Monterey & San Benito Counties in effect from 11AM Tuesday extended until 8PM Sunday
*Temperatures in the 80s to mid 90s
*Hot temperatures may cause heat illnesses to occur.
*.Those sensitive to heat, such as the homeless, elderly, children, and pets will be at risk for heat-related illnesses. Those without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration will be at the greatest risk.
Drink plenty of fluids, stay cool, stay out of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors.
Beat the heat and check the backseat! Do not leave young children and pets in unattended vehicles. Car interiors will reach lethal temperatures in a matter of minutes.
Take extra precautions when outside. Wear lightweight and loose fitting clothing. Try to limit strenuous activities to the early morning or evening. Take action when you see symptoms of heat
exhaustion and/or heat stroke.
To reduce risk during outdoor work, the Occupational Safety and Health Administration recommends scheduling frequent rest breaks in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone overcome by heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location. Heat stroke is an emergency!
Call 9 1 1.
Wednesday: Mostly clear with some fog possible on the immediate coast. Otherwise sunny. Warmer, with highs in the 70s-80s on the coast and mainly 90s to around 107ºF inland. Windy up-valleys in the afternoon and early evening.
Extended: The latest trends are showing temperatures continuing to climb on the coast through Friday and inland through Saturday where we max out 15-20ºF above normal for this time of year. Some cooling then expected through the weekend, though inland areas will remain hot.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
This week's normal temperatures:
--COASTAL CITIES--
LOW: 53ºF
HIGH: 68ºF
--INLAND CITIES--
LOW: 51ºF
HIGH: 84ºF
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
-The outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for July 9th – 15th calls for the likelihood of ABOVE normal temperatures and near normal* precipitation.
*Note: little to no precipitation typically falls this time of year
- ENSO (El Niño/La Niña) STATUS: La Niña Watch
- ENSO Forecast: Transition to La Niña by late summer.
- Area drought status: Currently drought-free
- Monterey Bay Sea Surface Temperature* as of July 1st : 55.3ºF
(Historic June AVG: 58.4ºF) -- *average of three buoys
