Dry Lightning Threat

A layer of tropical air in the mid-levels of the atmosphere will continue to stream in from the south into Tuesday. There is some instability in the layer—enough to make a few showers and even thunderstorms develop. However, a hot and dry layer below will evaporate most rain that falls. The biggest threat is lightning which without much rain to accompany it, may start fires. Lightning should be fairly limited, so widespread impacts are not expected. The moisture will begin to move out of our area by Tuesday afternoon and will be completely gone by Wednesday, ending the threat.

AIR QUALITY: Good to Moderate

Overnight: Low clouds and fog on the coast at times. Scattered mid-level clouds with a chance for isolated (mostly dry) showers & thunderstorms. Lows in the low to mid 50s on the coast, low 50s to upper 60s for inland valleys, and mainly 60s up in the hills. Brief gusty winds possible in and around any showers/storms that develop.

Tuesday: Patchy low clouds on the coast, mainly on the south/east sides of the bay. Scattered mid-level cloud stream in from the south throughout the day, though decreasing late. A slight chance for a (mostly dry) shower or thunderstorm. Expect coastal highs in the low 60s to mid 70s—warmest on the north side of the bay—and upper 70s to around 102ºF inland. Breezy westerly onshore winds becoming windy up-valleys in the afternoon. There is also a slight chance of briefly gusty winds if any showers or thunderstorms develop.

Wednesday: Low clouds and fog on the coast early in the day, then becoming patchy into the afternoon. Mostly sunny otherwise with coastal highs in the low 60s to mid 70s—warmest on the north side of the bay—and mid 70s to upper 90s inland. Breezy west-northwesterly onshore winds becoming windy up-valleys late in the day.

Extended: Temperatures slowly cool through the end of the week with an increase in coastal clouds, likely at maximum Friday. Northwesterly winds may be a bit stronger on Thursday, otherwise the forecast looks pretty tranquil. Some warming expected into Sunday.

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This week's normal temperatures:
--COASTAL CITIES--
LOW: 53ºF
HIGH: 68ºF

--INLAND CITIES--
LOW: 50ºF
HIGH: 83ºF
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-The outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for July 2^nd – 8^th calls for the likelihood of ABOVE normal temperatures and BELOW normal* precipitation.
*Note: little to no precipitation typically falls this time of year

- ENSO (El Niño/La Niña) STATUS: La Niña Watch
- ENSO Forecast: Transition to La Niña by late summer.
- Area drought status: Currently drought-free
- Monterey Bay Sea Surface Temperature* as of June 25^th: 55.9ºF
(Historic June AVG: 56.7ºF) -- *average of three buoys