Keeping it Simple: Warm & Sunny for Most Thursday
The forecast might seem simple now that rainy season has essentially come to a close, but, it’s really not! The air mass this weekend will support surface temperatures close to 90ºF but our ocean temperature is only 55ºF. A slight wind shift can mean a HUGE temperature swing over our population centers and therein lies the complication! We remain in an amplified weather pattern with a massive ridge out over the Pacific and an elongated trough of low pressure stretching across most of the contiguous U.S. Flow over our area is generally out of the of the north which is “offshore.” This will continue on today—however, it will weaken. Typically, as (northerly) offshore flow weakens, we see a southerly surge come up the coast in the low levels. Models are now pointing to this scenario which will start to cool down coastal areas, especially on the outer coast and on the north side of the bay. Low clouds/fog usually follow. Meanwhile, temperatures aloft keep rising day by day through Sunday! Thursday will likely be the warmest day on the coast (and the north side of the bay probably already saw its warmest day yesterday) while far inland areas may see their warmest on Sunday. Our microclimates in action!
AIR QUALITY: Good
Thursday: Sunny early with some low clouds possible on the Big Sur Coast and then in the north side of the bay late. A few cumulus clouds over the Diablo Range. Expect coastal highs in the 70s to low 80s with mid 70s to mid 80s inland. A southwesterly sea breeze will kick in for the afternoon.
Overnight: Increasing low clouds will fill the bay and near coastal valleys (northern Salinas Valley), while inland locations will remain mostly clear. Lows will be a touch warmer with mainly 40s across the area, low 50s for coastal cities, and warmer for higher elevations in the mid 50s. Winds will remain light, eventually turning more westerly.
Friday: Cooler on the coast with a few low clouds. Highs in the 60s to low 70s. Warm inland with highs in the 70s-80s. Cumulus buildup over the inland mountains in the afternoon with a slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm over the far eastern mountains.
Extended: We’ll remain a little cooler & cloudier on the coast through the weekend, but temperatures may remain above normal on average. Meanwhile inland, it will be mostly sunny and very warm, if not hot. All areas will begin to cool out of the weekend.
*Note: Any alerts from the National Weather Service in Monterey will be noted in italics above. Alerts may be edited for brevity or local clarification (in parenthesis).
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This week's normal temperatures:
--COASTAL CITIES--
LOW: 49ºF
HIGH: 65ºF
--INLAND CITIES--
LOW: 45ºF
HIGH: 74ºF
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-The outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for May 16th – 22nd calls for the likelihood of ABOVE normal temperatures and near normal precipitation.
- ENSO (El Niño/La Niña) STATUS: El Niño Advisory, La Niña Watch
- ENSO Forecast: Transition from El Niño to neutral by Spring and then to La Niña by summer.
-Area drought status: Currently drought-free
