Rain, Gusty Winds, and Cool Temps on the Way
Grab that warm coat and umbrella! Our next rain maker is on the way, but we’ll start Friday off dry, a little sunny, with some high and low clouds in the mix across the area. Clouds will be on the increase just after lunch. The cold front will arrive this evening, with light drizzle/ showers possible in the Santa Cruz Mountains a bit earlier. Expect widespread light to moderate rain as the system passes, with minor impacts. Localized ponding and wet roads for that evening commute, and gusty winds could mean an isolated down tree/ power outage. Speaking of winds, gusty southwest winds will start to pick up around lunch time. Becoming stronger ahead, and as the cold front passes. Sustained winds around 15-20mph with occasional gusts at 25-30mph. Higher elevations could have stronger gusts around 40-45mph. Estimated rainfall totals vary over the next 24 hours, coastal mountains .75-1", coastal Cities .50 or less, most other areas .25 or less.
The parent upper-low is sitting to our northwest. The low will eventually dip more south while moving east, bringing a stronger trough to the Central Coast, which will lead to cooler temps this afternoon, and cooler yet through the weekend. Most areas will be back in the 60s Friday, with upper 50s to 60 ° through the weekend. Instability will increase as the low drops, giving the Central Coast a slight chance of a thunderstorm this weekend.
AIR QUALITY: Good
Friday: Some drizzle/light rain possible in the coastal mountains starting in the afternoon. Widespread rain will then move from northwest to southeast across the area through the evening. Some rain-shadowed valleys may not see much precipitation. There is some potential for a narrow cold frontal rain band to develop which could lead to brief downpours and wind gusts mainly for coastal areas. Otherwise, winds could be gusty along and ahead of the front. Highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s on the coast and mid 60s to low 70s inland.
Overnight: As the system moves southeast, light to moderate rain to continue in southern Monterey and most of San Benito County into midnight. Rain will start to taper off by morning, with a few scattered showers possible behind the cold front. Mostly cloudy, becoming partly cloudy. Lows will be mild, in the mid 40s to low 50s. Southwest winds will remain breezy, gusty at times.
Saturday: Cloudy with scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Individual storms could produce brief heavy downpours, stronger wind gusts, and small hail. Highs will be noticeably cooler in the upper 50s to low 60s across the region.
Extended: Showers and a slight chance of a thunderstorm will linger into early Sunday, though increased afternoon sunshine may bump temps up a bit. Models are trending dryer for the early part of next week, though still watching a weak system on Monday. Next rain chance arrives mid-week. Temps will be slow to warm back up.
*Note: Any alerts from the National Weather Service in Monterey will be noted in italics above. Alerts may be edited for brevity or local clarification (in parenthesis).
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This week's normal temperatures:
--COASTAL CITIES--
LOW: 45ºF
HIGH: 63ºF
--INLAND CITIES--
LOW: 41ºF
HIGH: 68ºF
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-The outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for March 29th – April 4rd calls for the likelihood of BELOW normal temperatures and ABOVE normal precipitation.
- ENSO (El Niño/La Niña) STATUS: El Niño Advisory, La Niña Watch
- ENSO Forecast: Transition from El Niño to neutral by Spring and then to La Niña by summer.
-Area drought status: Currently drought-free
