A Break Before Weekend Storms
A ridge of high pressure passing through the region will send high temperatures above normal on Friday, though the sunlight will battle high clouds, especially late in the day. Those clouds are associated with a storm system moving in from the west. We’ll get the warm & cold fronts from it on Saturday with light to moderate rain initially into Saturday afternoon, then perhaps a brief period of heavy rain and gusty southerly winds before things calm down in the late evening. The first system will clear out quickly, but a second, strengthening system will be on its heels Sunday. This one will be positioned farther south, so we will see larger impacts. Rain is likely to be heavy at times late Sunday into Monday and will be accompanied by gusty winds. Impacts will be highest in the coastal mountains. The parent low pressure center will then linger offshore for a day or two, throwing rounds of showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms at us through Tuesday and maybe even into early Wednesday. Due to saturated soils, the heavy rainfall rates Sun/Mon will increase the chance of flooding and slides. Along with wind and rain, two large swells will arrive on our shores—one Saturday into early Sunday and another on Monday. High surf will make beach conditions treacherous.
AIR QUALITY: Good
Overnight: Passing high clouds. Fog possible in valley bottoms if we get a period of clear skies. Lows in the 40s.
Friday: Increasing high clouds, but warm with highs in the 60s for most areas.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy with rain and wind picking up into the afternoon—becoming most impactful in the late afternoon around the bay and early evening inland and in the south. Southerly winds will gust from 30-40mph in some exposed areas. Highs in the upper 50s to low 60s.
**HIGH SURF ADVISORY**
…for the immediate coast of Monterey & Santa Cruz Counties in effect from 10AM Saturday until 4PM Sunday.
*Large breaking waves of 18 to 22 feet along exposed, west-facing beaches. Locally higher waves up to 28 feet possible along some favored areas with steep beaches.
*Dangerous swimming and surfing conditions and localized beach erosion. Large waves can sweep across the beach without warning, pulling people into the sea from rocks, jetties, and beaches. These waves can also move large objects such as logs, crushing anyone caught underneath.
*These waves are caused by a combination of locally strong southerly winds and an incoming westerly swell from more intense storms located well offshore.
Beachgoers should never turn their back to the ocean during high surf. Inexperienced swimmers should remain out of the water due to dangerous surf conditions.
Extended: We’re likely to see a break in the action into early, then rain and wind arrive again in the evening with heavy rain and strong winds possible. Rounds of rain will continue through Monday into Tuesday with a slight chance of thunderstorms. Showers may linger all the way into Wednesday before calmer weather returns.
*Note: Any alerts from the National Weather Service in Monterey will be noted in italics above. Alerts may be edited for brevity or local clarification (in parenthesis)
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This week's normal temperatures:
--COASTAL CITIES--
LOW: 44ºF
HIGH: 61ºF
--INLAND CITIES--
LOW: 39ºF
HIGH: 63ºF
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-The outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for February 23rd – 29th calls for the likelihood of near normal temperatures and ABOVE normal precipitation.
- ENSO (El Niño/La Niña) STATUS: El Niño Advisory, La Niña Watch
- ENSO Forecast: Transition from El Niño to neutral by Spring and then to La Niña by summer.
-Area drought status: Currently drought-free
