Major Storm System Here – Heavy Rain & Strong Winds
A potent storm system has moved in across the Monterey Bay Area bringing heavy, flooding rains; gusty, damaging winds; and eventually dangerously high surf. Moderate rain (heavy in the coastal mountains) will persist into Thursday morning, enhanced by the cold front around 6AM or so. Street flooding is likely in many cities around the bay. So, expect a messy morning commute. Streams in the mountains will approach their banks. Small slides are possible. Winds will also increase along and ahead of the front, peaking with frontal passage. Power outages possible in coastal and mountain areas. Showers and gusty winds will persist through the rest of the day with a chance of thunderstorms. Additional downpours and damaging wind gusts possible. Waterspouts can’t be ruled out.
Air Quality: Good
***FLOOD WARNING***
…for Carmel River at Robles Del Rio from Thursday Afternoon to Thursday evening.
*Minor flooding is forecast.
*At 7.5 feet, Monitor Stage. Water levels are roughly 1 foot below primary breakout locations near Camp Steffani, Paso Hondo, and Dampierre Park. At 8.5 feet, Low lying homes from Camp Steffani to below Robles del Rio will begin to flood. Old Odello Ranch near Carmel begins to flood. Homes along Paso Hondo and Dampierre Park subject to flooding.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 8:15 AM PST Thursday the stage was 3.9 feet.
- Bankfull stage is 12.0 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 8.5 feet this afternoon.
- Flood stage is 8.5 feet.
- Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 8.1 feet on 02/14/2019.
***HIGH WIND WARNING***
…for coastal Monterey & Santa Cruz Counties and the Santa Cruz Mountains in effect until 10AM Friday
*Southwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph possible. Isolated gusts up to 80 mph possible in the higher elevation.
*Damaging winds could down trees, snap power lines, and result in property damage. Widespread power outages are possible. Travel could be extremely difficult and hazardous, especially for high profile vehicles. The combination of wind and moist soils will increase the risk for downed trees.
People are urged to secure loose objects that could be blown around or damaged by the wind.
***GALE WARNING***
…for the near coastal waters from Point Pinos to Point Piedras Blancas in effect until 3AM Friday.
*South winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 45 kt and seas of 6-11ft expected
… for the near coastal waters from Pigeon Point to Point Pinos (outside of Monterey Bay) in effect until 3AM Friday.
*South winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt and seas of 8-13ft expected.
... for the Monterey Bay in effect until 3AM Friday
*Southwest winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 45 kt and seas 8 to 10 ft
expected.
*Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.
Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for hazardous conditions.
**FLOOD ADVISORY**
…for Monterey and San Benito counties including locations, Soledad, Greenfield, King City, Gonzales, San Lucas, San Ardo, and Bradley.
*Until 2:30PM
*Flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues.
*Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas. Rises in small streams and normally dry arroyos.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 11:21 AM, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain. Minor flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly in the advisory area. Between 1 and 2 inches of rain have fallen.
- Additional rainfall amounts up to 1 inch are expected over the area. This additional rain will result in minor flooding.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.
In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to cross flooded roads. Find an alternate route.
Please report observed flooding to local emergency services or law enforcement and request they pass this information to the National Weather Service when you can do so safely.
**FLOOD ADVISORY**
…for portions of Santa Clara and Santa Cruz counties including locations, Santa Cruz, Watsonville, Corralitos, Capitola, Live Oak, Aptos, Eureka Canyon Road, Rio Del Mar, Brown Valley Road, Amesti, Freedom, Uvas Canyon Park, Soquel, Interlaken, Opal Cliffs, Twin Lakes, Day Valley, Aptos Hills-Larkin Valley and Aptos Hills-Larkin.
*Until 2:30PM
*Flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues.
*Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas. Dangerous flows over low-water crossings.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 11:24 AM, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated heavy rain. Minor flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly in the advisory area. Between 2 and 4 inches of rain have fallen.
- Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 1.5 inches are expected over the area. This additional rain will result in minor flooding.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.
In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to cross flooded roads. Find an alternate route.
Please report observed flooding to local emergency services or law enforcement and request they pass this information to the National Weather Service when you can do so safely.
**FLOOD ADVISORY**
…for portions of Santa Cruz, Santa Clara and San Mateo counties including areas, Santa Cruz, Scotts Valley, Woodside, Boulder Creek, Ben Lomond, Felton, Portola Valley, and Lexington Hills.
*Until 3PM
*Small stream flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.
*Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas. Rises in small streams. Some low-water crossings may become impassable. River or stream flows are elevated.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 11:54 AM, Doppler radar indicated moderate to heavy rain. This will cause small stream flooding. Between 1.5 and 3 inches of rain have fallen.
- Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 1.5 inches are expected over the area. This additional rain will result in minor flooding.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads. Stay away or be swept away. River banks and culverts can become unstable and unsafe. In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to cross flooded
roads. Find an alternate route.
Please report observed flooding to local emergency services or law enforcement and request they pass this information to the National Weather Service when you can do so safely.
**FLOOD ADVISORY**
… for Eastern Santa Clara and San Benito counties.
*Until 4PM
*Flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues.
*Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas. Dangerous flows over low-water crossings.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 12:35PM, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain. Minor flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly in the advisory area. Between 2 and 4 inches of rain have fallen.
- Additional rainfall amounts up to 1 inch are expected over the area. This additional rain will result in minor flooding.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to cross flooded roads. Find an alternate route.
Please report observed flooding to local emergency services or law enforcement and request they pass this information to the National Weather Service when you can do so safely.
**FLOOD ADVISORY**
… for Santa Clara Valley in Santa Clara County.
*Until 4:15PM
*Flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues.
* Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas. Rises in small streams and normally dry arroyos. Ponding of water in urban or other areas is occurring or is imminent.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 1251 PM PST, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain. Minor flooding is ongoing and expected to continue in the advisory area. Between 1 and 3 inches of rain have fallen.
- Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are expected over the area. This additional rain may result in minor flooding.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.
Please report observed flooding to local emergency services or law enforcement and request they pass this information to the National Weather Service when you can do so safely
**WIND ADVISORY**
…for interior Monterey County, San Benito County, and the Santa Clara Valley and Diablos in South Santa Clara County in effect from until 10AM Friday.
*Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 55 mph expected. Isolated gusts up to 60 mph possible in the higher elevation.
*Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. The combination of wind and moist soils will increase the risk for
downed trees.
Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 8:03 AM, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain. Minor flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly in the advisory area. Between 0.5 and 1 inch of rain has fallen.
- Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are expected over the area. This additional rain will result in minor flooding.
- Some locations that will experience flooding include... Soledad, Greenfield, King City, Gonzales, San Lucas, San Ardo and Bradley.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the dangers of flooding.
**FLOOD ADVISORY**
…for Monterey County including locations, Arroyo Seco, Lucia, Tassajara Hot Springs, Gorda, Jamesburg,Big Sur Village, Gonzales, Colman Canyon, Sycamore Flat, Esalen Institute, Julia Pfeiffer Burns State Park, Partington Ridge, Cachagua Near The Los Padres Dam, Pico Blanco Campground and Andrew Molera State Park.
*Flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues.
*Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas. Rises in small streams and normally dry arroyos.
- At 12:09PM, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated heavy rain. Minor flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly in the advisory area. Between 2 and 4.5 inches of rain have fallen.
- Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are expected over the area. This additional rain will result in minor flooding.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to cross flooded roads. Find an alternate route.
Please report observed flooding to local emergency services or law enforcement and request they pass this information to the National Weather Service when you can do so safely.
**FLOOD ADVISORY**
…for Portions of northern Monterey and San Benito county, southern Santa Clara and southeastern Santa Cruz including areas, Salinas, Watsonville, Gilroy, Hollister, Seaside, Monterey, Marina, Pacific Grove, Carmel-By-The-Sea, Carmel Valley, Boronda, Spreckels, Prunedale, Castroville, Chualar, Moss Landing, Interlaken, Ridgemark, San Clemente Dam and Del Monte Forest.
*Until 4:30PM
*Flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues.
*Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas. Rises in small streams and normally dry arroyos. Ponding of water in urban or other areas is occurring or is imminent.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 112 PM PST, Doppler radar indicated moderate to locally heavy rain. Minor flooding is ongoing in the advisory area. Between 0.8 and 5 inches of rain have fallen.
- Additional rainfall amounts up to 1 inch are expected over the area. This additional rain may result in minor flooding.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.
Please report observed flooding to local emergency services or law enforcement and request they pass this information to the National Weather Service when you can do so safely.
*FLOOD WATCH*
… in effect through Saturday evening for Monterey, Santa Cruz, San Benito, and South Santa Clara Counties
*Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.
*Heavy rain and excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks. Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas. Storm drains and ditches may become clogged with debris. Extensive street flooding and flooding of creeks and rivers are possible.
Unsettled wet weather expected to resume tonight into Wednesday leading to an increased flooding potential as the next Atmospheric River moves in. This next round of moderate to heavy rain is expected Wednesday night into Thursday. Area rivers, streams and creeks that are prone to rapid rises will bring additional flooding concerns to the Central Coast where the heaviest rainfall is likely within the Santa Cruz Mountains and the Santa Lucia Range.
You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.
Thursday: Heavy rain and gusty winds early, then breaking to mostly cloudy with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms into the afternoon. Gusty southwesterly winds weaken slightly, but persist into the evening. Wind damage, which could include property damage, blocked roads, and power outages looking likely early in the day. Street flooding likely with high water levels in coastal mountain streams. Major rivers will not flood. Highs in the 50s to low 60s.
***HIGH SURF WARNING***
… in effect from 3PM Thursday to 3AM Saturday for coastal Santa Cruz and Monterey Counties including the Monterey Bay.
*Dangerously large breaking waves of 20 to 30 ft and up to 45 ft for the highest waves on west facing beaches. Non-west facing beaches will see 15 to 20 ft waves and up to 30 ft peak waves.
*Breaking waves can sweep people off jetties and docks, and into dangerous seas. Life-threatening swimming conditions and significant beach erosion can be expected. Sudden immersion in cold water can result in cold water shock even for the most experienced swimmers. Cold water shock can result in dramatic changes in breathing, heart rate and blood pressure, greatly increasing the risk of drowning in rough open waters.
Everyone should remain out of the water due to life-threatening surf conditions. Stay off of jetties, piers, and other waterside infrastructure.
Friday (Valentine’s Day): Mostly cloudy with scattered shower early, then becoming partly cloudy with isolated showers. Showers ending by mid-afternoon. Highs in the 50s. Breezy.
Extended: We’ll warm back up a bit into the weekend with pleasant conditions expected. However, a weak system will clip us late Sunday and that could bring a few rain drops to the area. Warmer, drier weather expected for much of next week.
*Note: Any alerts from the National Weather Service in Monterey will be noted in italics above. Alerts may be edited for brevity or local clarification.
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This week's normal temperatures:
--COASTAL CITIES--
LOW: 44ºF
HIGH: 61ºF
--INLAND CITIES--
LOW: 39ºF
HIGH: 63ºF
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-The outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for February 20th - February 26th calls for the likelihood of ABOVE normal temperatures and BELOW normal precipitation.
- ENSO (El Niño/La Niña) STATUS: La Niña Advisory
- ENSO Forecast: La Niña persists into spring, then transitions to neutral by summer.
- Area drought status: Moderate drought for eastern San Benito County and far southeastern Monterey County. Abnormally dry for the remainder of the viewing area.
Monterey Bay Sea Surface Temperature as of February 12th 54.3ºF (avg of 8 buoys)
[February Avg. SST: 54.9ºF]
