Rain and Wind Still To Come
Rain is coming. The weak to moderate atmospheric river that has been stalled just to our north for the past couple of days will add moisture and a stronger storm system on Monday. Rain & wind will pick up on Monday night and then the slow-moving system will impact us through Tuesday morning into Tuesday afternoon with heavy rain and gusty southerly winds. Minor flooding is likely with expected rain rates and duration. Some creek flooding may also be possible, though our major rivers will handle the flow.
Preliminary Mon/Tue rainfall estimates:
Coastal Mountains: 4-8”
Santa Cruz Coast: 1.5-3”
Monterey Peninsula/Salinas: 1-2”
Northern Inland Valleys: 1.5-3”
Southern Inland Valleys: 0.5”-1.5”
Air Quality: Good
Monday: Increasing clouds and increasing southerly winds. A few light showers/sprinkles possible along the coast and in the coastal mountains during the day, then rain becoming more likely late, especially in the north. Highs in the low to mid-60s for most areas, 50s for Santa Cruz County.
***GALE WARNING***
… in effect from 3PM Monday to 9AM Tuesday for Coastal Waters from Pigeon Point to Point Pinos out to 10NM, from Point Pinos to Point Piedras Blancas California out to 10NM, and the Monterey Bay.
*South winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt and seas 8-10ft expected, and south winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 40 kt expected for the Monterey Bay.
*Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.
Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for hazardous conditions.
**WIND ADVISORY**
… in effect from 3PM Monday to 1AM Tuesday for north coast of Santa Cruz County.
*South to southwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph expected.
*Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.
*Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution.
*FLOOD WATCH*
…for the entire KION coverage area in Monterey, Santa Cruz, San Benito, and South Santa Clara Counties in effect from Monday afternoon until late Tuesday night.
*Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.
*Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas.
*The next round of moderate to heavy rain is expected Monday into Tuesday which will bring additional flooding concerns to the Central Coast where the heaviest rainfall is likely within the Santa Cruz Mountains and the Santa Lucia Range.
You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.
Overnight: Cloudy with continuous widespread moderate rain, heavy at times through midnight. A short lull possible early in the morning, before a second pulse brings another round of widespread moderate rain by dawn. Gusty southerly winds becoming stronger close to sunrise, with gusts 25 to 35 mph, occasionally stronger. Lows will be mild in the 40s and 50s. Far interior valleys in the upper 30s.
Tuesday: Widespread rain, heavy at times in the coastal mountains. Street flooding and flooding of low areas very possible. Minor creek/stream flooding possible. Gusty southerly winds at times with isolated wind damage possible, peaking mid to late afternoon. High sin the upper 50s to low 60s.
**WIND ADVISORY**
… in effect from 7AM to 8PM Tuesday for the Monterey Bay, Big Sur Coast, the Santa Cruz Mountains, interior Monterey County, the Santa Lucia Range and north coast of Santa Cruz County.
*South to southwest winds 20 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph expected.
*Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.
*Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution.
Extended: Rain tapers off with a few lingering showers in to Wednesday morning. Skies will break to partly cloudy on the back side of the system and temperatures will cool a bit. A trailing system will be here on Thursday and could bring briefly heavy rain and gusty winds once again. This is a fast-moving system, but also a cold one. Mountain snow is looking very possible and we’ll have to watch for thunderstorm chances. Skies clear out for the weekend which will likely mean COLD mornings with frost being a concern.
*Note: Any alerts from the National Weather Service in Monterey will be noted in italics above. Alerts may be edited for brevity or local clarification.
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This week's normal temperatures:
--COASTAL CITIES--
LOW: 43ºF
HIGH: 61ºF
--INLAND CITIES--
LOW: 38ºF
HIGH: 62ºF
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-The outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for February 10th – 18th calls for the likelihood of BELOW normal temperatures and near normal precipitation.
- ENSO (El Niño/La Niña) STATUS: La Niña Advisory
- ENSO Forecast: La Niña persists into spring, then transitions to neutral by summer.
- Area drought status: Moderate drought for the eastern valleys of San Benito County and far southeastern Monterey County, abnormally dry for the rest of the KION coverage area in Monterey, Santa Cruz, San Benito, and South Santa Clara Counties.
- Monterey Bay Sea Surface Temperature as of February 3rd : 53.9ºF (avg of 8 buoys) [January Average: 54.9ºF]
