Here Comes the Heat

WEATHER STORY
A strong ridge of high pressure will build into the region this week, sending temperatures through the roof! We’ll begin to feel the warm-up on Tuesday as northwesterly onshore winds slowly shift to dry, northerly flow. By Wednesday, highs are already expected to be roughly 15ºF above normal, and by Thursday, those numbers could exceed +20ºF. As Robert Frost once said, “Nothing gold can stay,” and that’s somehow a metaphor for the fact that the heat won’t last forever on the coast. Onshore winds are likely to return by Friday for the coast and near coastal valleys which will bring fog with them as well. Inland areas will stay quite toasty through the period, eventually cooling through the weekend as a storm system approaches. The latest trajectory is a colder, dryer solution which isn’t great for rain chances, but we’re not out of luck yet.

Air Quality: GOOD

***GALE WARNING***
...for the near coastal waters from Point Pinos to Point Piedras Blancas out to 10 nm, extended until 9PM Tuesday evening.

• Northwest winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt and seas 8 to 12 feet at 15 seconds expected.
• Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for severe condition

*Beach Hazards*

… from 3AM Tuesday until Wednesday evening for all beaches.

A moderate period northwest swell arrives overnight with a period between 14 to 16 seconds with swell heights over 11 feet from coastal Sonoma County to coastal Monterey County. The swell arrives over the northern waters early Tuesday morning, moving southward impacting area beaches through Wednesday evening, resulting in a high risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents. Swell periods will diminish slightly to 13 to 15 seconds on Wednesday, but the risk for sneaker waves and rip currents will persist. Additionally during this time period, the high energy of this swell may result in larger breaking waves in the surf zone from 18 to 22 feet. Swell heights and periods are expected to diminish below risk threshold Wednesday overnight into Thursday. On days with high sneaker wave risk, the ocean can appear deceptively calm with long lulls between larger wave sets. This may lead to individuals venturing onto exposed coastal features where infrequent but powerful waves can overwhelm them, knocking them into the cold, restless ocean where the possibility of hypothermia or drowning is severe. Each year, individuals lose their life during similar sneaker wave events along the California coast. If visiting the coast this weekend, respect the power of the ocean, remain vigilant of your surroundings, and avoiding venturing onto exposed coastal features where sudden, powerful waves can put your life at risk. And as always, never turn your back to the ocean!

*A moderate period northwest swell at 13 to 16 seconds associated with swell heights over 11 feet arrives early Tuesday morning, impacting area beaches through Wednesday night.

High risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents. Larger breaking waves in the surf zone may be possible.

*Stay well away from the shoreline, expect dangerous, potentially deadly high risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents. Beachcombing is not advised during this timeframe. Stay of coastal rocks and jetties. Keep children close, keep pets on leashes, and never turn your back to the ocean. This swell may also provide occasional larger breaking waves in the surf zone from 18 to 22 feet.

Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous swimming conditions.

Tuesday: Patchy low clouds in the valleys early, then becoming clear and sunny for the rest of the day. Warmer, with coastal highs in the 60s to low 70s with mainly 70s to low 80s inland. Breezy for most areas, gusty on the exposed coast during the afternoon.

Overnight: Things should remain mostly clear after dark and for the duration of the night. Expect temperatures to be cooler than the previous couple of nights with mid to low 40s at the coast and 30s inland. Things will become increasingly more chilly in the hours leading up to sunrise.  

Wednesday: Clear and cooler in the morning with lows in the 30s-40s. Then, sunny and warmer in the afternoon. Gusty northerly winds over the hills at times. Highs in the 70s-80s on the coast, 80s inland.

Extended: Thursday will be the hottest day of the week for most areas with widespread 80s-90s. Onshore flow returns to the coast Friday, cooling things and bringing the threat of some localized fog. Inland areas will remain hot, though near-coastal valleys will begin the cooling process as well. All areas will then slowly cool through the weekend into early next week. Rain will be possible starting Monday.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
This week's normal temperatures:
--COASTAL CITIES--
LOW: 46ºF
HIGH: 65ºF

--INLAND CITIES--
LOW: 42ºF
HIGH: 80ºF

----------------------------------------------------------------------------
-The outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for April 12^th - 18^th calls for the likelihood of BELOW normal temperatures and BELOW normal precipitation.
- El Niño/La Niña STATUS: La Niña Advisory
- Forecast into Summer: Weak La Niña

-Area drought status: “Severe Drought” for most of the viewing area with the far eastern fringes of Santa Benito and southeastern corner of Monterey County in “Extreme Drought.”