Passing Weather System May Hold A Surprise
AIR QUALITY (PM2.5 AQI as of 7:00PM)
Good to Moderate for all reporting stations
A weather system will pass by our north overnight into Friday. Southwesterly flow ahead of it will continue to draw up moisture from the remnants of tropical cyclone Karina—mainly in the form of high clouds. As the weather system passes, we’ll continue to see onshore flow. There is still some smoke in the marine layer offshore, so air quality may be temporarily reduced at times. Low clouds will thicken tonight at the system passes with drizzle possible.
Some destabilization of the tropical moisture will be briefly possible into Friday, with some low probability potential for shallow, high-based convection—in other words, weak showers/thundershowers. Due to a deep dry layer, it is likely not much if anything would reach the ground. But, a few drops would be possible along with an isolated lightning strike. This is all very conditional and most computer models are not showing it to fruition. However, I do see some potential and believe it is worth noting. As far as timing, it’s most likely in the morning hours on Friday.
Behind the weather system, dry northerly winds will pour over the mountaintops into Saturday. While not strong, the dry nature will help increase fire danger across the region above 1-2kft in elevation.
Cooler temps and low clouds return to the coast this weekend as onshore flow strengthens. High pressure will then build in through mid-week which will lead to warming for both coastal and inland areas along with a decrease in low cloudcover.
Overnight: Scattered high clouds across the area with patchy low clouds & fog with a few sprinkles of drizzle on the coast. Lows in the 50s for most areas.
Friday: Scattered clouds throughout the day. A very slight chance of a high-based shower/thundershower in the morning. Then, becoming mostly sunny by mid-afternoon. Highs in the 60s-70s on the coast upper 70s to 90s inland.
Saturday: Patchy low clouds along the coast and a few high clouds passing through. Expect coastal highs in the 60s to low 70s with mainly 70s to low 90s inland. Breezy for inland valleys in the afternoon.
Extended: Expect a nice weekend with seasonable temperatures and a few low clouds on the coast. We could see occasional smoke, but it won’t be near as bad as earlier this week. Some warming expected late in the week.
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This week's normal temperatures:
--COASTAL CITIES--
LOW: 53ºF
HIGH: 71ºF
--INLAND CITIES--
LOW: 50ºF
HIGH: 85ºF
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-The outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for September 25th – October 1st calls for the likelihood of ABOVE normal temperatures and near normal precipitation. Note: Little to no precipitation typically falls this time of year.
-El Niño/La Niña STATUS: Neutral
-Forecast into Winter: La Niña Watch
-Area drought status: Moderate drought for much of Santa Cruz & Santa Clara Counties, Abnormally dry on the east shore of the bay into San Benito County. No drought classification for much of Monterey County outside of the Gabilan Range.
