Weak System, Then Stronger Storm Arrives
Light rain with mountain snow expected overnight as a weak system passes through. A stronger storm system will arrive Wednesday night, however! A potent low pressure system and deep atmospheric river will team up to send heavy rain with flooding potential and damaging winds to the Monterey Bay Area. The time of greatest impact will be between roughly 5-11AM on Thursday. The developing low will also send some massive swells which will arrive Thursday into Friday.
Air Quality: Good
Overnight: Overcast with occasional light rain, tapering off toward dawn. Snow possible above 3,000ft. Lows in the upper 30s to low 50s. Breezy easterly winds at times.
Wednesday: Becoming mostly cloudy with some sun peeking through by mid-day. Slightly warmer, but still cool with highs in the 50s to around 60ºF. Clouds increase late with southerly winds picking up. Rain chances increase after sunset.
***GALE WARNING***
…for the near coastal waters from Point Pinos to Point Piedras Blancas in effect from 3PM Wednesday until 3PM Thursday.
*South winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 45 kt and seas of 6-11ft expected
… for the near coastal waters from Pigeon Point to Point Pinos (outside of Monterey Bay) in effect from 9PM Wednesday until 3PM Thursday.
*South winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt and seas of 8-10ft expected.
…and for Monterey Bay in effect from 3AM Thursday until 3PM Thursday
*Southwest winds 15-25kt with gusts to 45kt and seas of 8-10ft expected
*Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.
Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for hazardous conditions.
*HIGH WIND WATCH*
… in effect from Wednesday evening through Friday morning for the following areas:
…interior areas of Santa Cruz and Monterey Counties along with San Benito and South Santa Clara Counties
*Southwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph possible.
…and for coastal areas of Santa Cruz & Monterey Counties
* Southwest winds 35 to 40 mph with gusts up to 70 mph possible. Isolated gusts to 80 mph along some coastal areas such as the Big Sur Coast.
*Damaging winds could blow down trees and power lines. Widespread power outages are possible. Travel could be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Strong winds may move loose debris, result in minor damage property, and cause sporadic power outages. Travel could become difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. The combination of wind and moist soils will increase the risk for downed trees.
Monitor the latest forecasts and warnings for updates.
Secure loose outdoor objects that could be blown around or damaged by the wind.
*FLOOD WATCH*
… in effect from Wednesday evening through Saturday evening for Monterey, Santa Cruz, and San Benito Counties and the Santa Cruz Mountains into Santa Clara County.
*Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.
*Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks. Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas. Storm drains and ditches may become clogged with debris. Extensive street flooding and flooding of creeks and rivers are possible.
Unsettled wet weather expected to resume tonight into Wednesday leading to an increased flooding potential as the next Atmospheric River moves in. This next round of moderate to heavy rain is expected Wednesday night into Thursday. Area rivers, streams and creeks that are prone to rapid rises will bring additional flooding concerns to the Central Coast where the heaviest rainfall is likely within the Santa Cruz Mountains and the Santa Lucia Range.
You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.
***HIGH SURF WARNING***
… in effect from 3PM Thursday to 3AM Saturday for coastal Santa Cruz and Monterey Counties including the Monterey Bay.
*Dangerously large breaking waves of 20 to 30 ft and up to 45 ft for the highest waves on west facing beaches. Non-west facing beaches will see 15 to 20 ft waves and up to 30 ft peak waves.
*Breaking waves can sweep people off jetties and docks, and into dangerous seas. Life-threatening swimming conditions and significant beach erosion can be expected. Sudden immersion in cold water can result in cold water shock even for the most experienced swimmers. Cold water shock can result in dramatic changes in breathing, heart rate and blood pressure, greatly increasing the risk of drowning in rough open waters.
Everyone should remain out of the water due to life-threatening surf conditions. Stay off of jetties, piers, and other waterside infrastructure.
Thursday: Overcast with periods of heavy rain and gusty, damaging winds in the morning hours, then breaking to mostly cloudy with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Gusty southwesterly winds weaken slightly, but persist into the evening. Wind damage, which could include property damage, blocked roads, and power outages looking likely early in the day. Street flooding likely with high water levels in coastal mountain streams. Major rivers will not flood. Highs in the 50s to low 60s.
Extended: Showers linger on Friday (Valentine’s Day) and will taper off by late afternoon. Cool, windy conditions can also be expected. We’ll warm back up a bit into the weekend with pleasant conditions expected. However, a weak system will clip us late Sunday and that could bring a few rain drops to the area. Warmer, drier weather expected for much of next week.
*Note: Any alerts from the National Weather Service in Monterey will be noted in italics above. Alerts may be edited for brevity or local clarification.
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This week's normal temperatures:
--COASTAL CITIES--
LOW: 44ºF
HIGH: 61ºF
--INLAND CITIES--
LOW: 39ºF
HIGH: 63ºF
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-The outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for February 19th - February 25th calls for the likelihood of ABOVE normal temperatures and BELOW normal precipitation.
- ENSO (El Niño/La Niña) STATUS: La Niña Advisory
- ENSO Forecast: La Niña persists into spring, then transitions to neutral by summer.
- Area drought status: Moderate drought for eastern San Benito County and far southeastern Monterey County. Abnormally dry for the remainder of the viewing area.
Monterey Bay Sea Surface Temperature as of February 12th 54.3ºF (avg of 8 buoys)
[February Avg. SST: 54.9ºF]
