Onshore Offshore

Dry conditions are expected for the next week as our weather pattern will be characterized by dominating high pressure and offshore winds. Initially, a system passing to our north will help direct the winds onshore on Monday which will pause the warming trend and perhaps introduce low clouds to the coast. Winds then shift back to the northeast into Tuesday as a major wind event unveils over the Sierra Nevada (mono winds) and Southern California (Santa Ana Winds). We’ll see offshore winds locally as well, peaking late Tuesday. No alerts in place at the moment, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see some for our mountains.

AIR QUALITY: Good to Moderate

Overnight: High clouds passing through with low clouds possible on the coast and into the northern inland valleys. Patchy fog possible in southern valleys. Lows in the upper 30s to mid-40s on the coast and low 30s to around 40ºF inland. Northeasterly winds over the hills at times, otherwise light winds.

*Beach Hazards*
…for the immediate coast of Santa Cruz and Monterey Counties from 4AM Monday through 4PM Tuesday

*A long period NW swell will result in an increased risk of sneaker waves and rip currents. Breaking waves will be up to 20 feet in favored locations.

*Sneaker waves can unexpectedly run significantly farther up the beach than normal, including over rocks and jetties. These waves can suddenly knock people off their feet and quickly pull them into the cold ocean waters, where currents will be stronger than normal. These waves can also carry driftwood logs and other debris.

Avoid climbing on rocks and jetties. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous swimming conditions. If going to the beach, observe the waves for several minutes and increase the stand- off distance from the water's edge. Most importantly, be vigilant, and never turn your back on the ocean.

Monday: Passing high clouds with a few low clouds possible along the coast, especially on the south/east sides of the bay. Highs in the upper 50s to mid-60 for both coastal and inland areas. Light winds early, then northwesterly onshore winds picking up and becoming gusty in the valleys late in the day. Winds then shift back to the northeast over the hills late.

Tuesday: Patchy morning fog in low, sheltered areas. Passing high clouds and slightly warmer with highs in the 60s to around 70ºF. Northeasterly offshore winds at times, especially in the hills, getting stronger late.

Extended: The offshore wind machine will peak locally overnight Tuesday into Wednesday and then winds will ease with a dry air mass in place. This will lead to cold mornings and warm afternoons for the rest of the week. A dry cold front will pass by on Friday, but at the moment, impacts seem negligible. Rain will likely hold off until at least the 17^th, perhaps later.
*Note: Any alerts from the National Weather Service in Monterey will be noted in italics above. Alerts may be edited for brevity or local clarification

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This week's normal temperatures:
--COASTAL CITIES--
LOW: 42ºF
HIGH: 60ºF

--INLAND CITIES--
LOW: 37ºF
HIGH: 61ºF
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-The outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for January 13^th – 19^th calls for the likelihood of near normal temperatures and BELOW normal precipitation.

- ENSO (El Niño/La Niña) STATUS: La Niña Watch
- ENSO Forecast: Transition to La Niña into the fall and persist through the winter months.
- Area drought status: Abnormally dry for San Benito County, northeastern Monterey County and eastern Santa Clara County. Drought-free elsewhere- Monterey Bay Sea Surface Temperature as of January 6^th : 54.2ºF (avg of 6 buoys) [January Average: 54.7ºF]