Active Weather Returns
Rain returns overnight after a nice, warm winter dry streak. A storm system moving ashore on the West Coast will push a cold front through our area overnight. Rain will taper off after the front, but showers will be possible throughout Thursday, being more numerous late in the afternoon. Chilly and gusty northwest winds will also follow the front! Most of us will get a break on Friday before a stronger system arrives on Saturday. More in the extended section below.
AIR QUALITY: Good to Moderate
Overnight: Light to moderate rain spreads across the area from west to east, then tapering off around the bay before dawn. Expect lows on the coast in the 40s with 30s-40s inland.
Thursday: Partly cloudy early with an increasing chance of showers in the afternoon. Showers should remain light, but may be briefly moderate. Gusty northwesterly winds at times. Much cooler with highs in the 50s. Showers taper off in the evening.
**HIGH SURF ADVISORY**
…for north and west-facing beaches of Monterey & Santa Cruz Counties in effect from 1PM Thursday until 4AM Friday.
*Large breaking waves of 18 to 22 feet expected.
*Dangerous swimming and surfing conditions and localized beach erosion.
*Long period northwesterly swell will result in an increasing risk of sneaker waves, rip currents, and longshore currents with breaking waves between 18 and 22 feet expected.
Inexperienced swimmers should remain out of the water due to dangerous surf conditions.
Friday: Mostly cloudy early with a chance for light rain, then becoming partly cloudy and dry for the rest of the day. Slightly warmer with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. Southerly winds pick up late.
*HIGH WIND WATCH*
…for the coast and coastal mountains of Monterey and Santa Cruz Counties in effect from late Friday through Saturday afternoon.
*South winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 45 mph possible.
*Damaging winds could down trees, snap power lines, and result in property damage. Widespread power outages are possible. Travel could be extremely difficult and hazardous, especially for high profile vehicles.
Monitor the latest forecasts and warnings for updates.
Fasten loose objects or shelter objects in a safe location prior to the onset of winds.
Extended: The next storm system arrives on Saturday, likely in the afternoon, though it will load up offshore beforehand. Expect increasing southerly winds which could get strong before the front passes through during the afternoon. Rain is expected to be moderate—perhaps briefly heavy and there may be a slight chance of an embedded thunderstorm. High surf in combination with strong winds and higher than normal tides may be an issue as well, which we are monitoring. Dry conditions return on Sunday with the next, weaker system coming late on Monday. High pressure will build in past mid-week which should warm us up a bit. There may be a chance for some brief offshore winds as well.
*Note: Any alerts from the National Weather Service in Monterey will be noted in italics above. Alerts may be edited for brevity or local clarification
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
This week's normal temperatures:
--COASTAL CITIES--
LOW: 42ºF
HIGH: 60ºF
--INLAND CITIES--
LOW: 37ºF
HIGH: 60ºF
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
-The outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for December 19th – 25th calls for the likelihood of ABOVE normal temperatures and near normal precipitation.
- ENSO (El Niño/La Niña) STATUS: La Niña Watch
- ENSO Forecast: Transition to La Niña into the fall and persist through the winter months.
- Area drought status: Abnormally dry for areas around Monterey Bay northward. Drought-free elsewhere
- Monterey Bay Sea Surface Temperature as of December 12th : 54.3ºF (avg of 7 buoys) [December Average: 55.0ºF]
