The Storm Is Upon Us
Stormy weather finally arrives on Friday! A developing low will move in from the west and push the stalled atmospheric river/frontal boundary through our area on in the afternoon and evening. It will have lost some strength and moisture by this time, but moderate to briefly heavy rain will be possible along with gusty winds! Most areas will see a good 4-8 hours of moderate+ rain, though southern inland areas won’t see as much and for as long. Street flooding and flooding of poorly drained areas seems likely, though creeks and rivers should absorb the flow. Southerly winds will peak late afternoon to early evening for most areas and will probably take down a few trees leading to blocked roads and power outages.
AIR QUALITY: Good
**FLOOD ADVISORY**
…for all of Santa Cruz County west of Aptos and north into Santa Clara County in effect until 12:30AM Saturday
*Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas. Water over roadways.
- At 330 PM PST, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain. This will cause urban and small stream flooding. Between 0.2 and 1 inch of rain has fallen.
- Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 4 inches are expected over the area. This additional rain will result in minor flooding.
- Some locations that will experience flooding include... San Jose, Sunnyvale, Mountain View, Palo Alto, Santa Cruz, Cupertino, Campbell, Menlo Park, Saratoga, Los Gatos, Los Altos, East Palo Alto, Scotts Valley, Capitola, Live Oak, Los Altos Hills, Atherton, Woodside, Boulder Creek and Ben Lomond.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.
Please report observed flooding to local emergency services or law enforcement and request they pass this information to the National Weather Service when you can do so safely.
**WIND ADVISORY**
…for the higher terrain of Santa Cruz, Santa Clara, Monterey, and San Benito Counties, along with coastal Monterey County in effect and extended until 10AM Saturday
*South winds 15 to 30 mph with gusts up to 55mph
*Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. The combination of wind and moist soils will increase the risk for downed trees.
*A narrow frontal rain band will move through the Bay Area and Central Coast today which will result in gusty south winds ahead of and during its passage. Winds will start to ease overnight after the frontal rain band has progressed out of the region.
Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution.
Secure outdoor objects.
***GALE WARNING***
… for the near coastal waters from Pigeon Point to Point Pinos (outside of Monterey Bay) in effect from until 3AM Saturday
-South winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 40 kt and seas 8 to 10 ft expected.
… and for the near coastal waters from Point Pinos to Point Piedras Blancas in effect until 3AM Saturday
-Southeast winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 35 kt expected.
Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.
Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for hazardous conditions.
Friday: Clouds and increase through the morning with widespread rain—heavy at times—arriving in the afternoon. A few light showers may precede the rain earlier in the day. Gusty southerly winds at times. Rain onset will be later for southern inland areas. Up to 5” possible in the coastal mountains with most cities around the bay receiving 0.5” – 2”. Some minor flooding possible. Gusty winds may knock down a few trees leading to power outages. Highs in the mid-50s to around 70ºF on the coast and mid-60s to low 70s inland.
Saturday: A few showers linger over the area on Saturday under partly cloudy skies. Cool & breezy with highs in the 50s-60s.
Extended: A trailing system will bring new rain chances on Sunday into Monday. There is some potential for another round of moderate to heavy rain. Shower chances continue through Tuesday, then start to look less likely past mid-week and toward Thanksgiving when we should dry out.
*Note: Any alerts from the National Weather Service in Monterey will be noted in italics above. Alerts may be edited for brevity or local clarification
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
This week's normal temperatures:
--COASTAL CITIES--
LOW: 45ºF
HIGH: 63ºF
--INLAND CITIES--
LOW: 40ºF
HIGH: 66ºF
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
-The outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for November 30th – December 6th calls for the likelihood of ABOVE normal temperatures and BELOW normal precipitation.
- ENSO (El Niño/La Niña) STATUS: La Niña Watch
- ENSO Forecast: Transition to La Niña into the fall and persist through the winter months.
- Area drought status: Abnormally dry for areas around Monterey Bay northward. Drought-free elsewhere.
- Monterey Bay Sea Surface Temperature as of November 21st : 53.3ºF (avg of 6 buoys) [November Average: 56.6ºF]
