Rain & Wind On The Way
Stormy weather finally arrives on Friday! A developing low will move in from the west and push the stalled atmospheric river/frontal boundary through our area on in the afternoon and evening. It will have lost some strength and moisture by this time, but moderate to briefly heavy rain will be possible along with gusty winds! Most areas will see a good 4-8 hours of moderate+ rain, though southern inland areas won’t see as much and for as long. Street flooding and flooding of poorly drained areas seems likely, though creeks and rivers should absorb the flow. Southerly winds will peak late afternoon to early evening for most areas and will probably take down a few trees leading to blocked roads and power outages.
AIR QUALITY: Good
**HIGH SURF ADVISORY**
...for southern Monterey Bay and Big Sur Coast in effect until 6 AM Friday
*Large Breaking waves between 14-19 feet wave along southwest facing beaches and up to 22 ft along well exposed west-facing beaches.
Dangerous swimming and surfing conditions and localized beach erosion. Large waves can sweep across the beach without warning, pulling people into the sea from rocks, jetties and beaches. Sudden immersion in cold water can result in cold water shock even for the most experienced swimmers. Cold water shock can result in dramatic changes in breathing, heart rate and blood pressure, greatly increasing the risk of drowning in rough open waters.
Inexperienced swimmers should remain out of the water due to dangerous surf conditions.
*Beach Hazards Statement*
…for the immediate coast along the north side of Monterey Bay.
A moderate period northwest swell will result in a more energetic surf zone resulting in an increased risk of sneaker waves and rip currents. Breaking waves of 10 to 13 ft are expected with some potential for breaking waves up to 15 ft to develop
*Dangerous swimming and surfing conditions. Large waves can sweep across the beach without warning, pulling people into the sea from rocks, jetties, and beaches. Sudden immersion in cold water can result in cold water shock even for the most experienced swimmers. Cold water shock can result in dramatic changes in breathing, heart rate and blood pressure, greatly increasing the risk of drowning in rough open waters.
Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous swimming conditions.
**WIND ADVISORY**
…for the higher terrain of Santa Cruz, Santa Clara, Monterey, and San Benito Counties, along with coastal Monterey County in effect from 10PM Thursday until 10PM Friday.
*South winds 15 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph expected, locally higher gusts greater than 60 mph are possible above 2,500 feet.
*Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. The combination of wind and moist soils will increase the risk for
downed trees particularly across the North Bay.
*A narrow frontal rain band is expected to develop Thursday night into Friday which will result in gusty south winds ahead of and during its passage. Winds will start to ease by late Friday after the frontal rain band has progressed out of the region. Moderate to heavy rains over the last 48 hours have saturated soils across the North Bay which will lead to increased risk of downed trees and power lines as gusty winds redevelop.
Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution.
Secure outdoor objects.
***GALE WARNING***
… for the near coastal waters from Pigeon Point to Point Pinos (outside of Monterey Bay) in effect from 3AM Friday until 3AM Saturday
-South winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 40 kt and seas 8 to 10 ft expected.
… and for the near coastal waters from Point Pinos to Point Piedras Blancas in effect from 9AM Friday until 9PM Friday
-Southeast winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt expected.
Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.
Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for hazardous conditions.
Overnight: Partly to mostly cloudy with light rain in the Santa Cruz Mountains. Breezy southerly winds at times—occasionally gusty on the exposed coast and over the ridgetops. Lows in the low to mid 50s on the coast and low 30s to around 50ºF inland.
Friday: Clouds and increase through the morning with widespread rain—heavy at times—arriving in the afternoon. A few light showers may precede the rain earlier in the day. Gusty southerly winds at times. Rain onset will be later for southern inland areas. Up to 5” possible in the coastal mountains with most cities around the bay receiving 0.5” – 2”. Some minor flooding possible. Gusty winds may knock down a few trees leading to power outages. Highs in the mid-50s to around 70ºF on the coast and mid-60s to low 70s inland.
Saturday: A few showers linger over the area on Saturday under partly cloudy skies. Cool & breezy with highs in the 50s-60s.
Extended: A trailing system will bring new rain chances on Sunday into Monday. There is some potential for another round of moderate to heavy rain. Shower chances continue through Tuesday, then start to look less likely past mid-week and toward Thanksgiving when we should dry out.
*Note: Any alerts from the National Weather Service in Monterey will be noted in italics above. Alerts may be edited for brevity or local clarification
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This week's normal temperatures:
--COASTAL CITIES--
LOW: 45ºF
HIGH: 63ºF
--INLAND CITIES--
LOW: 40ºF
HIGH: 66ºF
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-The outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for November 29th – December 5th calls for the likelihood of BELOW normal temperatures and BELOW normal precipitation.
- ENSO (El Niño/La Niña) STATUS: La Niña Watch
- ENSO Forecast: Transition to La Niña into the fall and persist through the winter months.
- Area drought status: Abnormally dry for areas around Monterey Bay northward. Drought-free elsewhere.
- Monterey Bay Sea Surface Temperature as of November 21st : 53.3ºF (avg of 6 buoys) [November Average: 56.6ºF]
