Fire Weather Danger Increases
Weather conditions will result in critical fire danger through Saturday then winds will subside. Dry, gusty winds out of the north-northeast could help fires start easily and spread rapidly. We’ll remain sandwiched between a strong area of high pressure out of the Pacific and a deep, cold low over the Great Basin through Saturday. The resultant northerly flow will come in gusty and then slowly ease through Saturday, though the air will progressively dry during the period as the air mass warms. After the winds calm down, we’ll remain in a warm, dry air mass into next week.
AIR QUALITY: Good to Moderate
***RED FLAG WARNING***
…for all inland areas and coastal mountains of Monterey, Santa Cruz, San Benito, and Santa Clara Counties and now including coastal Santa Cruz County in effect until 5PM Saturday
Gusty north-northeast winds are expected to develop as an "inside slider" system moves into the Great Basin this weekend. Humidities are expected to quickly dry out as low as 10% Friday and Saturday. Most areas across the region will be affected to some degree, with likely exceptions being the immediate Big Sur coast, Monterey Bay coast, and the Marin/Sonoma coast. Winds largely on the order of 25-35 mph can be expected with gusts to 45 mph...isolated gusts to 65 mph across the highest terrain and ridgetops, most notably the North Bay Interior Mountains and the Diablo Range.
*WINDS...North and northeast 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph with potential for gusts up to 65 mph along ridgetops and the highest terrain of the northern mountains
*HUMIDITY…As low as 9 percent.
*LIGHTNING...None.
* IMPACTS...The combination of gusty winds and low humidity can cause fire to rapidly grow in size and intensity. Outdoor burning is not recommended. Despite recent cool weather and high humidity, we are expecting a widespread and prolonged offshore wind event which will likely dry fuels out very quickly given their volatility over the past several weeks.
A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now...or will shortly. A combination of strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can contribute to extreme fire behavior.
**WIND ADVISORY**
…for the Diablo Range in Santa Clara County in effect until 11PM Friday.
*North winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph expected.
*Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.
*These are dry, offshore winds that will increase fire danger. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect through 5 PM Saturday.
Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.
Today: Sunny with a few thin, high clouds possible. Gusty northerly winds at times. Very dry with highs in the upper 60s to upper 70s for most areas.
Overnight: Clear skies to partly cloudy with lows in the upper 40s to upper 50s and winds can still be gusty over areas.
Saturday: Winds remain occasionally gusty in the hills into Friday, but die off for most other areas. After a chilly morning, expect the afternoon warming trend to continue with highs in the 70s to low 80s for most areas.
Extended: A dry air mass settles in for the remainder of the weekend and into early next week. Lows will be cool and highs warm with mostly sunny skies. High clouds thicken a bit on Sunday and Monday, but of not much consequence. Late in the week, models are showing a system clipping our area which could bring some light rain by Thursday and Friday. It is a ways out, but we are monitoring.
*Note: Any alerts from the National Weather Service in Monterey will be noted in italics above. Alerts may be edited for brevity or local clarification
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This week's normal temperatures:
--COASTAL CITIES--
LOW: 51ºF
HIGH: 71ºF
--INLAND CITIES--
LOW: 46ºF
HIGH: 78ºF
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-The outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for October 25th – 31st calls for the likelihood of ABOVE normal temperatures and ABOVE normal precipitation.
- ENSO (El Niño/La Niña) STATUS: La Niña Watch
- ENSO Forecast: Transition to La Niña into the fall and persist through the winter months.
- Area drought status: Abnormally dry for areas around Monterey Bay northward. Drought-free elsewhere.
- Monterey Bay Sea Surface Temperature as of October 18th : 57.6ºF (avg of 7 buoys)
