Excessive Heat and Fire Danger
Excessive heat continues into Wednesday with a strong ridge of high pressure stretched across the state. Mountaintop temperatures rise another 1-3ºF on Wednesday which will likely translate all the way to the surface. Most areas will be even hotter than Tuesday with the exception of the south side of the bay. Tuesday’s light southerly surface winds over the ocean will switch back to the northwest. Santa Cruz will be about 10ºF hotter! The ridge will weaken a little and reposition to our southeast by Thursday. Inland temps will cool a bit but offshore flow will keep heat at the coast. Additionally, some mid-level moisture will be drawn in around the high. At the moment, the layer looks very shallow and should only amount to some mid to high level cloudcover Thursday into Friday. More on the cooling trend thereafter in the extended forecast below…
AIR QUALITY: Good to Moderate
***EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING***
…for the Santa Cruz Mountains, Santa Clara County, and the Santa Lucias/Los Padres as well as Northern and Southern Salinas Valley, Hollister Valley, Carmel Valley, Pinnacles National Park of Monterey County and mountains of San Benito County in effect until 11 pm Wednesday.
*Dangerously hot conditions with temperatures up to 108 or higher and overnight lows ranging from the lower 70s to lower 80s.
*Extreme heat will significantly increase the potential for heat related illnesses, particularly for those working or participating in outdoor activities.
Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors. Young children and pets should never be left unattended in vehicles under any circumstances.
Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. When possible, reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. Wear lightweight and loose-fitting clothing when possible. To reduce risk during outdoor work, the Occupational Safety and Health Administration recommends scheduling frequent rest breaks in shaded or air-conditioned environments. Anyone overcome by heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location.
Heat stroke is an emergency! Call 9 1 1.
**HEAT ADVISORY**
…in effect from 11AM Monday until 11PM Wednesday for…
… coastal areas of Monterey & Santa Cruz Counties where temperatures up to 93ºF are expected…
*Hot temperatures may cause heat illnesses to occur. Moderate to major heat risk throughout this period.
Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors. Young children and pets should never be left unattended in vehicles under any circumstances.
Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. When possible, reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. Wear lightweight and loose-fitting clothing when possible. To reduce risk during outdoor work, the Occupational Safety and Health Administration recommends scheduling frequent rest breaks in shaded or air-conditioned environments. Anyone overcome by heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location.
Heat stroke is an emergency! Call 9 1 1.
Overnight: Clear for most areas with perhaps a little fog/low cloudcover right along the south coast of Big Sur. Mild, with coastal and valleys lows in the upper 50s to low 60s and 70s-80s up in the hills.
***RED FLAG WARNING***
…for the hills/ mountains and southern valleys of Monterey County and the hills/mountains of San Benito County in effect from 3AM Wednesday until 8PM Thursday.
Hot and dry conditions during the day coupled with little to no relief at night will persist through at least Thursday. Pulses of offshore flow (north to northeast winds) will occur both day and night as well. Additionally, fuel moisture remains critically low. As result, Red Flag conditions will develop across portions of the Central Coast early Wednesday lasting through at least Thursday evening.
* WINDS...North 5 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.
* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as upper single digits during the day and less than 30 percent at night.
* LIGHTNING...None.
* IMPACTS...The combination of gusty winds and low humidity can cause fire to rapidly grow in size and intensity. Outdoor burning is not recommended and follow local burn bans.
A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now...or will shortly. A combination of strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can contribute to extreme fire behavior.
Wednesday: Sunny and even hotter with coastal highs in the 80s to around 100ºF possible and widespread 100s to around 110ºF inland. Expect a slightly stronger onshore push late in the day which could make for windy conditions in the valleys. The initial winds will be dry with enhanced fire danger especially in the south, though some humidity recovery is expected thereafter.
Thursday: Mostly sunny with a few high clouds moving through. Hot again with coastal highs in the low 80s to around 100ºF and widespread 100s to around 108ºF inland. Breezy on the exposed coast and up valleys late in the day.
Extended: As the high moves to our east, we’ll slowly cool down into the weekend. High temperatures are expected to remain at least 10ºF above normal through Saturday or Sunday but long-term projections continue to show heat across the Western U.S., though I’m less confident about that continuing on the coast than inland. Some coastal cooling is likely Monday/Tuesday, but hard to say how long.
*Note: Any alerts from the National Weather Service in Monterey will be noted in italics above. Alerts may be edited for brevity or local clarification
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This week's normal temperatures:
--COASTAL CITIES--
LOW: 52ºF
HIGH: 71ºF
--INLAND CITIES--
LOW: 48ºF
HIGH: 81ºF
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-The outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for October 9th – 15th calls for the likelihood of ABOVE normal temperatures and BELOW normal precipitation.
- ENSO (El Niño/La Niña) STATUS: La Niña Watch
- ENSO Forecast: Transition to La Niña into the fall and persist through the winter months.
- Area drought status: Abnormally dry for areas around Monterey Bay northward. Drought-free elsewhere.
- Monterey Bay Sea Surface Temperature* as of October 2nd : 60.5ºF
(Historic Sep AVG near Monterey: 59.6ºF) -- *average of 7 buoys
