Fall Heat
A strong ridge of high pressure will settle in over the West Coast for the next few days. Its position, just to our north, will continue to drive the flow offshore over our area. Hot weather can be expected for both inland and coastal cities through mid-week. At the smaller scale, however, a weak southerly surface push will help moderate some coastal areas on Tuesday, especially on the north/east sides of the bay. The push will be shallow, however, and the south side of the bay along with all inland areas will see another rise in temperatures between 2-7ºF over Monday’s already toasty highs. Temperatures aloft over our area peak on Wednesday before the ridge begins to slide to the Desert Southwest. More in the extended forecast below…
AIR QUALITY: Good to Moderate
***EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING***
…for the Santa Cruz Mountains, Santa Clara County, and the Santa Lucias/Los Padres in Monterey County in effect until 11PM Wednesday.
*Dangerously hot conditions with temperatures up to 108 and overnight lows ranging from the lower 70s to lower 80s.
*Extreme heat will significantly increase the potential for heat related illnesses, particularly for those working or participating in outdoor activities.
Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors. Young children and pets should never be left unattended in vehicles under any circumstances.
Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. When possible, reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. Wear lightweight and loose-fitting clothing when possible. To reduce risk during outdoor work, the Occupational Safety and Health Administration recommends scheduling frequent rest breaks in shaded or air-conditioned environments. Anyone overcome by heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location.
Heat stroke is an emergency! Call 9 1 1.
**HEAT ADVISORY**
…in effect from 11AM Monday until 11PM Wednesday for…
… coastal areas of Monterey & Santa Cruz Counties where temperatures up to 93ºF are expected…
… and for inland mountains and valleys Monterey County and San Benito County where temperatures up to 105ºF are expected.
*Hot temperatures may cause heat illnesses to occur. Moderate to major heat risk throughout this period.
Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors. Young children and pets should never be left unattended in vehicles under any circumstances.
Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. When possible, reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. Wear lightweight and loose-fitting clothing when possible. To reduce risk during outdoor work, the Occupational Safety and Health Administration recommends scheduling frequent rest breaks in shaded or air-conditioned environments. Anyone overcome by heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location.
Heat stroke is an emergency! Call 9 1 1.
Overnight: Clear with coastal lows in the 50s, 50s to 60s for inland valleys, and 60s to 70s up in the hills.
Tuesday: Sunny and even warmer for most areas. The north/east sides of the bay may be a touch cooler with some fog possible right along the coast. Highs in the upper 70s to low 90s for coastal cities and mid-90s to around 108ºF inland and in the higher terrain.
Wednesday: Sunny and even hotter with coastal highs in the 80s to around 100ºF possible and widespread 100s to around 109ºD inland. Expect a slightly stronger onshore push late in the day which could make for windy conditions in the valleys. The initial winds will be dry with enhanced fire danger, though some humidity recovery is expected thereafter.
*FIRE WEATHER WATCH*
… in effect for the Santa Lucia Range/Los Padres National Forest and the southern valleys of Monterey County in effect from 6AM Wednesday through 8PM Thursday for gusty offshore winds and low humidity
Gusty north-northeast winds are expected to develop Wednesday and last into Thursday across interior portions of Monterey County, including the Santa Lucia, Los Padres National Forest, and the southern Salinas Valley. A dry airmass already in place will be subject to these gusty offshore winds of 20-30 mph, promoting further drying with daytime minimum humidity as low as 10%. Poor overnight recovery will also be a factor, with maximum RH in the 15-30% range each Wednesday and Thursday mornings. The strongest winds are expected to be Wednesday evening overnight into Thursday morning.
* WINDS...North 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.
* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 10 percent.
* TEMPERATURES...Up to 106.
* LIGHTNING...None.
*IMPACTS...The combination of gusty winds and low humidity can cause fire to rapidly grow in size and intensity. Outdoor burning is not recommended.
A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible Red Flag Warnings.
Extended: As the high moves to our east, we’ll slowly cool down into the weekend. High temperatures are expected to remain at least 10ºF above normal through Saturday or Sunday but long term projections continue to show heat across the Western U.S., though I’m less confident about that continuing on the coast than inland.
*Note: Any alerts from the National Weather Service in Monterey will be noted in italics above. Alerts may be edited for brevity or local clarification
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This week's normal temperatures:
--COASTAL CITIES--
LOW: 52ºF
HIGH: 71ºF
--INLAND CITIES--
LOW: 48ºF
HIGH: 81ºF
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-The outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for October 8th – 14th calls for the likelihood of ABOVE normal temperatures and near normal precipitation.
- ENSO (El Niño/La Niña) STATUS: La Niña Watch
- ENSO Forecast: Transition to La Niña into the fall and persist through the winter months.
- Area drought status: Abnormally dry for areas around Monterey Bay northward. Drought-free elsewhere.
- Monterey Bay Sea Surface Temperature* as of October 1st : 59.4ºF
(Historic Sep AVG near Monterey: 59.6ºF) -- *average of 7 buoys
