Crashing Thermometer
Temperatures will cool slightly on Tuesday as the strong ridge to our north weakens and moves east. A cut-off low will migrate north, passing us by to the west during the day. The interaction between these two features will switch our flow to the south. Southerly flow is typically warm, so highs will remain above normal! However, they’ll just be a bit cooler than Monday. South-facing coastal areas will also see a stronger sea breeze and a better chance at fog/low clouds—so expect a more significant cool-down in these areas. The low will get absorbed into a passing trough on Wednesday, lowering the pressure over our area and allowing for a deeper marine layer. This will translate to much cooler temperatures and sturdy low cloudcover on the coast.
AIR QUALITY: Good to Moderate
Rest of Tuesday: Low clouds for the north/east sides of the bay and the outer coast, otherwise mostly sunny with a few cumulus over the hills. Cooler overall, but still warm for this time of year with coastal highs ranging from the mid 60s to upper 70s and inland areas ranging from mid 80s to upper 90s. Windy up valleys late in the day.
Overnight: Low clouds and fog for the coast and nearby valleys. Lows in the 50s for most areas with 60s up in the hills.
Wednesday: Remaining mostly cloudy on the coast with highs in the 60s. Mostly sunny inland with highs in the 70s to low 90s.
Extended: We’ll be in for a bit of a temperature roller coaster from mid-week through the weekend as we remain sandwiched in between weather features. The result could be large temperature swings but also low confidence in the forecast. Right now, it looks like most areas will warm back up through Friday, then cool down on Saturday before warming again Sunday/Monday.
*Note: Any alerts from the National Weather Service in Monterey will be noted in italics above. Alerts may be edited for brevity or local clarification
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This week's normal temperatures:
--COASTAL CITIES--
LOW: 55ºF
HIGH: 71ºF
--INLAND CITIES--
LOW: 52ºF
HIGH: 86ºF
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-The outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for October 2nd - 8th calls for the likelihood of ABOVE normal temperatures and BELOW normal precipitation.
- ENSO (El Niño/La Niña) STATUS: La Niña Watch
- ENSO Forecast: Transition to La Niña into the fall and persist through the winter months.
- Area drought status: Abnormally dry for areas around Monterey Bay northward. Drought-free elsewhere.
- Monterey Bay Sea Surface Temperature* as of September 23rd : 59.3ºF
(Historic Sep AVG near Monterey: 59.6ºF) -- *average of 7 buoys
