Already Watching The Next System

The next chance for early season rain is on the horizon, but we’ll be mostly dry on Tuesday—you can never rule out a little drizzle in the low clouds! Overall troughing continues on the west coast and the next disturbance will rotate in on Wednesday. Latest trends have been slower and having the low stick around until Thursday. So, now it looks like rain chances are lower on Wednesday but higher on Thursday. Ultimately, I think we’ll have some coastal drizzle on Wednesday with an isolated shower or two possible. Then on Thursday, we’ll have some instability driven convection over the hills and potentially some rain wrapping around the low back into our area. Rain totals will remain low, though could be higher if a thunderstorm develops over the mountains.

AIR QUALITY: Good to Moderate

Overnight: Low clouds for the coast and inland valleys with patchy fog and drizzle. Lows in the 50s. In clear, higher valleys, temperatures are likely to dip into the 40s.

Tuesday: Coastal clouds leave the valleys and scatter on the coast but the addition of high clouds will keep coastal coverage “mostly” and inland areas “partly.” Slightly warmer with coastal high sin the low to upper 60s and upper 60s to low 80s inland. Breezy onshore winds becoming windy up valleys late in the day.

Wednesday: For coastal areas, expect mostly cloudy skies with patchy drizzle and the chance for an isolated shower. Highs in the low to mid 60s. Inland areas will be partly cloudy with isolated mountain showers and a chance for a thunderstorm. Highs in the upper 60s to 70s. Breezy onshore winds becoming windy up valleys late in the day.

Extended: The shower threat lingers into Thursday, then dryer weather is expected into the weekend. Temps will head upward and will be back above normal on Saturday, peaking at +10-15ºF on Sunday.

*Note: Any alerts from the National Weather Service in Monterey will be noted in italics above. Alerts may be edited for brevity or local clarification
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This week's normal temperatures:
--COASTAL CITIES--
LOW: 55ºF
HIGH: 71ºF

--INLAND CITIES--
LOW: 52ºF
HIGH: 86ºF
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-The outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for September 24^th – 30^th calls for the likelihood of ABOVE normal temperatures and near normal precipitation.

- ENSO (El Niño/La Niña) STATUS: La Niña Watch
- ENSO Forecast: Transition to La Niña into the fall and persist through the winter months.
- Area drought status: Abnormally dry for areas around Monterey Bay northward. Drought-free elsewhere.
- Monterey Bay Sea Surface Temperature* as of September 16^th: 57.3ºF
(Historic Sep AVG near Monterey: 59.6ºF) -- *average of 7 buoys