Not The Tropics, Not The Monsoon, But…
Our first weather system of the season arrives Tuesday morning. Sure, we’ve had some precipitation—tropical, monsoonal, typical summer coastal advection drizzle, but this one is different. It’s a regular ol’ mid-latitude storm system, though we are far from taking a direct hit. In fact, we’ll only catch the tail end of its orphaned and dissipating cold front. Still, it should be enough to squeeze out some precipitation for us and honestly, it doesn’t look like it will be that much different than our typical summer coastal advection drizzle in impacts. The most likely scenario is that we get some light, drizzly rain an hour or two either side of dawn around the Monterey Bay Area with a few areas picking up a hundredth of an inch or two—perhaps up to 0.05” at the most. Damp, slippery roads are the biggest hazard. Of perhaps bigger concern will be the waves. The storm at its strongest made some big waves in the North Pacific which will be arriving on our shores during the day on Tuesday. These northwesterly swells will alter the summer-time profile of area beaches and will cause dangerous rip currents. Swimming may be hazardous on Tuesday despite the nice weather. Wait, nice weather? Okay, so after the cold front falls apart Tuesday morning, dry, northerly flow will take over. Northerly flow is offshore and deep mixing in the relatively mild post-frontal environment will mean a warm-up for most areas. Highs will return to or exceed seasonal normals. That’s enough for this paragraph, see the extended forecast below for what happens next…
AIR QUALITY: Good
Overnight: Increasing clouds with a chance of drizzle or light rain for coastal areas around dawn. Expect lows in the 50s for most areas with a few southern valleys dipping into the 40s.
**HIGH SURF ADVISORY**
…for the immediate coast of Santa Cruz & Monterey Counties in effect from 5AM Tuesday until 11PM Tuesday
*Large breaking waves of 12 to 16 ft, locally higher at steep-sloped beaches with breaking wave heights of 15 to 20ft.
*Dangerous swimming and surfing conditions and localized beach erosion. Large waves can sweep across the beach without warning, pulling people into the sea from the rocks, jetties, and beaches. These waves can also move large objects such as logs, crushing anyone caught underneath.
*Large northwest waves will peak during the day on Tuesday, then diminishing into Wednesday. Northwest facing beaches are most at risk for large turbulent shore break and strong currents.
Inexperienced swimmers should remain out of the water due to dangerous surf conditions.
Tuesday: Skies break to partly cloudy by late morning, mostly sunny by afternoon. Warmer, with highs in the upper 60s to upper 70s on the coast and upper 70s to upper 80s inland. Gusty north-northwesterly winds at times.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny and warm with highs in the upper 60s to upper 70s on the coast and upper 70s to upper 80s inland. Gusty north-northwesterly winds at times.
Extended: The pattern will remain progressive through the weekend. Northwesterly flow will persist and will eventually become more onshore, cooling and increasing the clouds for the coast. Then, a deep trough will dig down from the north. At its current forecast, it may be too far to the east to give us any precipitation, but we will get cooler air which will be more notable inland as we head into Friday/Saturday. In its wake, winds look to shift offshore out of the weekend which will likely bring warmer, dryer weather with a slight increase in fire danger.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
This week's normal temperatures:
--COASTAL CITIES--
LOW: 53ºF
HIGH: 70ºF
--INLAND CITIES--
LOW: 49ºF
HIGH: 83ºF
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
-The outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for October 3rd – 9th calls for the likelihood of near normal temperatures and ABOVE normal precipitation.
- ENSO (El Niño/La Niña) STATUS: El Niño Advisory
- Forecast: Strong to Very Strong El Niño expected this winter.
-Area drought status: Currently drought-free
