Dry Lightning Threat
Dangerous fire weather conditions exist on Saturday with the potential for (mostly) dry thunderstorms. These storms are developing in part due to moisture streaming in from the south courtesy of Tropical Cyclone Jova. Jova is also sending southerly swells our way with a heightened chance of rip currents this weekend. High clouds and occasional (mostly) dry showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible into Saturday evening
Warm temperatures will hang around through the weekend with scattered high clouds, then we’ll cool down into next week as a trough develops on the coast. Increased coastal low clouds also likely.
AIR QUALITY: Good
***RED FLAG WARNING***
… for the mountains and higher terrain of Monterey & San Benito Counties until noon Saturday.
The Fire Weather Watch is no longer in effect.
*Winds: Northwest 10 to 15 mph.
*Relative Humidity: As low as 15 percent, recovering into the 20s above about 2500 feet, and into the 40-50% range below 2500 feet.
*Temperatures: Afternoon highs in the mid-80s to lower 90s.
*Lightning: Isolated dry thunderstorms with isolated lightning strikes through noon today. Any thunderstorms that do develop are likely to remain dry at lower levels.
*Impacts: The combination of dry fuels and lightning presents an increased likelihood of fire starts. Any starts that may occur are likely to remain isolated, given that winds and humidity remain below Red Flag criteria.
A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now...or will shortly. A combination of strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can contribute to extreme fire behavior.
*Beach Hazards Statement*
… for the Monterey Bay coastline and along the Big Sur Coast through Sunday evening.
*Increased risk for dangerous rip currents and larger breakers of 4 to 9 feet expected due to incoming southerly swell.
*Possible dangers to inexperienced swimmers, surfers, and anyone standing or walking in or close to the water.
*Larger southerly swell of 3 to 4 feet at 15 to 16 seconds will arrive Saturday morning. This swell originated from Hurricane Jova and could bring an increased risk of dangerous rip currents as well as elevated surf, particularly for south facing beaches, including Santa Cruz.
Never turn your back to the ocean! Sneaker waves can occur at any time without warning. It is safest to swim at a beach with lifeguards. If you are caught in a rip current, don't try to swim against it. Instead, swim out of the current, parallel to the shore, and then back to shore. If you can't swim, float or tread water, and yell or wave for help if you need assistance.
Saturday:Â A few low clouds near the coast, otherwise scattered high clouds with isolated showers and and thunderstorms. Dry lightning possible. Highs in the upper 60s to 70s on the coast and mainly 80s-90s inland. Breezy northwesterly onshore winds becoming windy for inland valleys late in the day.
***GALE WARNING***
...for the coastal waters from Point Pinos to Point Piedras Blancas out to 10 nm.
-From 3 pm to 9 pm Saturday.
Impacts...NW strong winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt will cause hazardous seas which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.
Sunday: Still some high clouds but mostly sunny across most of the central coast and still warm with coastal highs upper 60s and 70s and inland 80s to upper 90s with breezy conditions continuing.
Extended: A trough will bring cooler temperatures Tuesday and much of next week under partly cloudy skies.
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This week's normal temperatures:
--COASTAL CITIES--
LOW: 54ºF
HIGH: 70ºF
--INLAND CITIES--
LOW: 52ºF
HIGH: 85ºF
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-The outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for September 14th – 20th calls for the likelihood of ABOVE normal temperatures and ABOVE normal precipitation. Note: Little to no precipitation typically falls this time of year.
- ENSO (El Niño/La Niña) STATUS: El Niño Advisory
- Forecast: Moderate to strong El Niño expected this winter.
-Area drought status: Currently drought-free
