Heavy Rain and Strong Wind Chances
Air Quality Report (As of 8:00am)
Good for all reporting areas.
Weather Story: A few showers may linger in the hills into Monday afternoon. We'll get a break late Monday into Tuesday, but the next, stronger system will arrive late Tuesday into Wednesday morning. This is a slow-moving system packed with moisture that will pass through Wednesday, across our south, then push back north before slowly moving south out of our area again. This repeated exposure will mean significant rainfall amounts for our coastal hills--especially the Santa Lucias. Those planning to travel Highway 1 down the Big Sur Coast Wednesday into Thursday should make alternate plans. Most of the viewing area will see an inch of rain plus, but totals could approach a foot in the Santa Lucias. Debris flows around burn scars will be a good possibility, so if you live on or near a scar, make sure you have a plan in place to stay safe. Additional rainfall possible beyond Thursday as several, weaker systems take aim on the West Coast.
From the National Weather Service in Monterey…
***GALE WARNING***
… for Monterey Bay through 10AM Monday.
… for Coastal Waters from Pigeon Point to Point Piedras Blancas out to 10nm through 3AM Tuesday.
Northwest winds 25 to 35 kt with gusts up to 50 kt and seas 12 to 17 feet at 13 seconds expected. Slightly weaker winds and smaller waves in the bay.
Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.
Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for severe conditions.
Monday: Partly cloudy with showers over the hills, especially close to the coast. Snow levels will remain low with snowflakes as low as 2,500ft at times. Gusty northwest winds at times. Cool, with highs in the low 50s on the coast and upper 40s to low 50s inland.
Overnight: Mostly clear overnight with gusty winds at times. Cold conditions with 20s-30s inland and 30s to low 40s on the coast.
Tuesday: Cold in the morning under mostly clear skies, then increasing high clouds. Cool, with highs in the upper 40s to low 50s. Clouds increase through the afternoon with light rain possible in the coastal hills starting mid-afternoon. Southerly winds pick up late with rain increasing across the region.
From the National Weather Service in Monterey…
*Flash Flood Watch*
… for the coastal mountains of Santa Cruz & Monterey Counties from 4pm Tuesday through 4pm Thursday.
-A moderate atmospheric river will impact the region Tuesday through Thursday bringing prolonged periods of moderate to heavy rain along with gusty south winds. The brunt of the storm is forecast to occur between Tuesday evening through Wednesday.
* High confidence that thresholds for debris flows will be met for the following 2020 burn scars: CZU, Carmel/River, and Dolan. For non-burn scar areas, there could be rapid ponding of water in urban areas, and low lying areas with poor drainage. We also cannot rule out slides or wash outs in areas of steep terrain.
If you live near or on a burn scar: make sure you are signed up for your county's reverse 911 or other alert system and have a "go bag" ready. Monitor the weather for forecast updates and heed local official orders
*High Wind Watch* … for the Santa Cruz Mtns and Santa Clara County 7pm Tuesday through 10am Wednesday.
… for Santa Lucia Mountains and Los Padres National Forest- Mountains Of San Benito County And Interior Monterey County Including Pinnacles National Park- Northern Salinas Valley/Hollister Valley and Carmel Valley- Northern Monterey Bay- Including the cities of Salinas, Santa Cruz, Watsonville, and Live Oak 7pm Tuesday through 7am Thursday.
-South winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 70 mph possible.
-Damaging winds could blow down trees and power lines. Widespread power outages are possible. Travel could be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.
-Monitor the latest forecasts and warnings for updates on this
situation. Fasten loose objects or shelter objects in a safe
location prior to the onset of winds.
Extended: A strong cold front will move through overnight Tuesday into Wednesday with a period of heavy rain and potentially damaging winds, especially for exposed coastal areas. Rainfall rates may cause hydrological issues for burn scars. The cold front will then sweep to the south through late morning on Wednesday. It will then likely stall somewhere in our southern mountains or perhaps on the southern Central Coast. Rainfall totals may vary wildly depending on the stall point and how far north it undulates after it stalls. Even if it doesn’t make it back to our viewing area, showers will continue to pile into the area into Thursday. This is a warmer, moist air mass and temperatures will likely increase slightly—we’re talking upper 50s instead of low 50s. There is still some uncertainty in the forecast, so please stay tuned to my updates. Beyond the Wednesday/Thursday system, we’ll get a break on Friday before weaker systems move by the weekend.
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This week's normal temperatures:
--COASTAL CITIES--
LOW: 43ºF
HIGH: 60ºF
--INLAND CITIES--
LOW: 37ºF
HIGH: 62ºF
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-The outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for February 1st – 7th calls for the likelihood of BELOW normal temperatures and near normal precipitation.
-El Niño/La Niña STATUS: Moderate La Niña
-Forecast into Winter: La Niña Advisory
-Area drought status: Moderate drought most of our viewing area. A small slice of southeastern Santa Clara and northeastern San Benito Counties are considered to be in Severe Drought.
