High Surf & Offshore Winds
Air Quality Report (As of 6:30pm)
Good for all reporting areas.
Weather Story:
A dry area of low pressure to our south will continue to force winds offshore throughout the day. Fire danger will remain high over our southern mountains overnight even though fire alerts have been allowed to expire. Offshore flow will continue to warm us into Tuesday as well and we may approach record highs. Additionally, a strong storm system of the Gulf of Alaska is generating large swells which will create hazardous conditions on our coast into Tuesday.
By mid-week, a weak, dry cold front will reach the coast and direct flow back onshore. Temperatures will cool off for most areas through late in the week with some moderation into the weekend. A wet cold front will get close to us by late Sunday into Monday. Rain may be possible, but it is still a bit far out.
From the National Weather Service in Monterey…
***HIGH SURF WARNING***
... for north/west-facing beaches through 9PM Tuesday
A strong storm system near the Aleutians is forecast to generate a very large, very long period northwest swell train that will arrive Monday before peaking Monday Night and Tuesday along the coast. By Monday night, the swell heights are forecast to increase rapidly and the primary hazard will shift towards large breaking waves of roughly 25 feet at west and northwest facing beaches prompting dangerous conditions in the surf zone at west to northwest facing beaches.. Cold water drownings occur each year with these type of events but are completely avoidable by remaining a safe distance from the coastline. If you must visit the coastline, avoid venturing out on coastal rocks, outcroppings, jetties, etc, and remain extremely vigilant of your surroundings at all times.
For the High Surf Warning, dangerously large breaking waves of 25 feet at west to northwest beaches Monday Night through Tuesday. Enhanced coastal run up, localized beach erosion, and stronger rip currents are expected both Monday and Tuesday.
Main threat will be at west to northwest facings beaches along the entire coastline from Sonoma county southward through Big Sur in Monterey county. Excludes the Northern Monterey Bay (including Santa Cruz) due to this area being sheltered from the northwest seas.
Sneaker waves and large breaking waves can sweep people off jetties and docks, and into dangerous seas. Life-threatening swimming conditions and localized beach erosion can be expected. Cold water rescues or drownings are more likely with these waves and stronger rip currents.
These types of events lead to cold water drownings each year so extreme vigilance is advised.
A High Surf Warning for large breaking waves means conditions are present to support large waves along the surf zone capable of sweeping people into the frigid and turbulent ocean water. Cold water shock may cause cardiac arrest, and it also can cause an involuntary gasp reflex causing drowning, even for a good swimmer. The surf zone will be dangerous due to strong currents and powerful breaking waves.
*High Surf Advisory*
... for the north shore of Monterey Bay through 9pm Tuesday.
Infrequent yet dangerous sneaker waves are expected with an increased risk of strong rip currents, increased wave runup, and large breaking waves.
Sneaker waves and large breaking waves can sweep people off jetties and docks, and into dangerous seas. Life- threatening swimming conditions can be expected. Cold water rescues or drownings are more likely with these waves and stronger rip currents.
Tuesday: Lighter offshore winds will allow fire danger to ease, but conditions will remain warm and dry under full sunshine. In fact, the air mass will warm further with almost all areas reaching the 70s for highs—some low 80s even possible in a few areas like Salinas and Big Sur. Some high clouds will make an appearance in the south later in the day, but otherwise expect full sunshine.
Overnight: A few high clouds may stream in, otherwise clear. Cool in the valley bottoms with lows in the 20s-40s. It will remain mild the hills with lows in the 40s-50s. Coastal spot mostly in the 40s.
Wednesday: Winds transition back onshore which will eventually bring some low cloudcover back to the coast. We’ll also have periods of high clouds passing through. Expect cooler highs with most coastal areas in the 60s. Inland areas will see 60s-70s. Even with the onshore flow, winds will pick up over the hills late in the evening into Thursday morning and shift slightly back offshore. This will likely increase fire danger once again.
Extended: Gusty winds continue in the hills into Thursday, but down low, the cooling trend will continue Thursday into Friday, with highs in the 50s-60s. Some moderation expected this weekend as high pressure tries to push in from the south. The ridge will break down a bit early next week, allowing for weather systems to get *closer* to us—and may mean for a couple chances at light rain beginning as early as late Sunday night.
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This week's normal temperatures:
--COASTAL CITIES--
LOW: 42ºF
HIGH: 60ºF
--INLAND CITIES--
LOW: 35ºF
HIGH: 62ºF
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-The outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for December 15th – 21st calls for the likelihood of ABOVE normal temperatures and near normal precipitation.
-El Niño/La Niña STATUS: Weak La Niña
-Forecast into Winter: La Niña Advisory
-Area drought status: Moderate drought for much of Santa Cruz & Santa Clara Counties and the far eastern side of San Benito County, Abnormally dry for all other areas.
