A Clearer Picture Of The Weather Ahead
A large Pacific storm continues to take shape out over the ocean to our west. It will continue to dig south overnight before settling into one position for the next day or two. One week disturbance rotating around the low will clip our area early on Tuesday morning and may throw a few showers at coastal areas. However, clouds will the push back to the west, leaving us with a mostly sunny and warmer day on Tuesday. The next disturbance rotating around the bigger low will move into position on Wednesday with what essentially amounts to a warm front moving in late in the day Wednesday, bringing a period of moderate rain to most areas—though some inland areas will experience rain shadowing and won’t see as much. We’ll remain in moist southwest flow on Thursday which could bring additional rain before the system moves through Friday/Saturday. More details in the extended section below.
AIR QUALITY: Good
Overnight: Partly cloudy with an isolated shower or two possible along the coast and/or in western Santa Cruz County. Mostly clear inland. Coastal lows in the upper 40s to low 50s with mid 30s upper 40s inland.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny with a few coastal clouds and a few high clouds passing through. Warmer, with highs in the 60s to low 70s on the coast and upper 60s to mid 70s inland. Gusty southerly winds at time on the exposed coast and for inland valleys. Breezy southerly winds elsewhere.
Wednesday: Increasing clouds with rain looking more likely in the late afternoon. Gusty southerly winds at times. Cooler, with highs in the 60s for most areas and perhaps a few 70s for southern valleys.
Extended: Showers will linger into Thursday in the moist southwesterly flow. The core of the weather system will approach Friday and pass over on Saturday with several more rounds of showers. Timing of these rounds will be difficult to predict until we get closer to those particular days. But occasional gusty winds and isolated, embedded thundershowers may also be possible. High pressure quickly builds in starting Sunday with much dryer air and offshore flow.
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This week's normal temperatures:
--COASTAL CITIES--
LOW: 46ºF
HIGH: 66ºF
--INLAND CITIES--
LOW: 40ºF
HIGH: 68ºF
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-The outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for November 21st – 27th calls for the likelihood of near normal temperatures and ABOVE normal precipitation.
- ENSO (El Niño/La Niña) STATUS: El Niño Advisory
- ENSO Forecast: Strong to Very Strong El Niño expected this winter.
-Area drought status: Currently drought-free
