Howling Forecast
Red Flag Warning and Wind Advisory for parts of the central coast region for the weekend. Cool weather will be the story as we head into the weekend and then our attention turns to “fire weather.” The already cool air mass in place will be reinforced by another cool, dry air mass on Saturday. As this air mass moves in Saturday, gusty northeasterly offshore winds will develop. These winds will be felt mostly in the mountains but may occasionally mix down into the valleys. The air mass will also be very dry, so these conditions will combine to create elevated fire danger especially late Saturday into early Sunday. Luckily, while we’re still in our dry season, we’ve had a few weak systems bring some beneficial moisture to the region. This will help keep fire danger from being worse. As far as temperatures are concerned, expect chilly mornings and cool afternoons through the weekend. Building high pressure next week will warm up our afternoons, but the mornings will still be chilly!
AIR QUALITY: Good
Overnight: Mostly clear with a few high clouds passing through. Lows will be chilly, in the 40s for most locations, 30s and 40s inland with patchy frost possible in the hills. North/northwest winds will be gusty at times, becoming stronger by dawn.
Saturday: Mostly sunny with just a few high clouds. Slightly warmer, but still cool for this time of year. Expect coastal highs in the 60s to around 70ºF with mid 60s to mid 70s inland. Breezy northeasterly offshore winds in the hills with occasionally breezy conditions in the lower elevations and valleys.
Sunday: Mostly sunny and still breezy. Coastal highs in mid 60s to low 70s with temps a bit warmer inland, reaching upper 70s in a few locations.
***RED FLAG WARNING***
… for the Santa Cruz Mountains and the Diablo Range (in Santa Clara County) starting 5AM Saturday to 5PM Sunday.
* North 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph. Highest ridgetops and peaks may see gusts up to 60 mph.
*Minimum relative humidity as low as 15 to 20 percent on Saturday and Sunday. Poor relative humidity recoveries overnight in the 20 to 40 percent range.
* IMPACTS...The combination of gusty winds and low humidity can cause fire to rapidly grow in size and intensity. Outdoor burning is not recommended.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now...or will shortly. A combination of strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can contribute to extreme fire behavior.
**WIND ADVISORY**
...for the Santa Cruz Mountains and Eastern Santa Clara Hills, starting 8AM Saturday through 5PM Sunday.
*North to northeast winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph expected. Ridgetop gusts over 50 mph possible.
*Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.
*Enhanced fire weather conditions are expected in these areas and a Fire Weather Watch is also in effect.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.
Extended: Sunny to mostly sunny skies, cool mornings, and warming afternoons can be expected into early next week. It will likely be cold enough for frost in some inland valleys, however. We’re watching the potential for a system late next week, although it the moment, it doesn’t look all that wet.
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This week's normal temperatures:
--COASTAL CITIES--
LOW: 49ºF
HIGH: 70ºF
--INLAND CITIES--
LOW: 44ºF
HIGH: 76ºF
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-The outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for November 3rd – 9th calls for the likelihood of ABOVE normal temperatures and ABOVE normal precipitation.
- ENSO (El Niño/La Niña) STATUS: El Niño Advisory
- ENSO Forecast: Strong to Very Strong El Niño expected this winter.
-Area drought status: Currently drought-free
