Several Inches of Rain Issuing Flood Alerts Across the Central Coast
Here’s a look at your forecast for Santa Cruz, Monterey, San Benito, and southern Santa Clara Counties!
A strong storm system combined with a moderate atmospheric river brought gusty winds and heavy rain overnight. The Central Coast will still see a few waves of scattered showers Friday afternoon. A storm like this would be serious by itself, but compounded with saturated soils from our wet winter, it will likely reach the next level. Several inches of rain has issued many flood alerts across the region. Occasional rain will continue this weekend, though it won’t be as intense. Two additional atmospheric river events are possible, however. One on Tuesday and another by the end of the week. These would likely exacerbate existing flooding. Another thing worth mentioning will be the warmer weather brought on by this sub-tropical air mass.
AIR QUALITY: Good
***FLOOD WARNING***
…for the area of Pacheco-Pass Hwy 152 and Hwy 156 intersection to Lovers Lane in San Benito and Santa Clara counties. EXTENDED until 10am Saturday.
*Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.
* Flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations is imminent or occurring.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS…
At 714 AM PST, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated heavy rain. Flooding is already occurring in the warned area. Between 2.5 and 3 inches of rain have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 1 inch are possible in the warned area.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.
In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to cross flooded roads. Find an alternate route.
***FLOOD WARNING***
…for areas near Uvas Creek including Gilroy EXTENDED until 4pm Friday.
* Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.
* Flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations is imminent or occurring.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
At 758 AM PST, gauge reports indicated heavy rain. Flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly in the warned area. Between 2 and 4 inches of rain have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible in the warned area.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.
Keep children away from storm drains, culverts, creeks and streams. Water levels can rise rapidly and sweep children away.
***FLOOD WARNING***
…for areas near the Big Sur River, some locations include Big Sur Village and Andrew Molera State Park, in effect until 3pm.
*Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.
*Flooding of the Big Sur River and other low-lying and flood-prone locations is imminent or occurring.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
At 856 AM PST, Flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly on the Big Sur River. Between 3 and 5 inches of rain have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are possible in the warned area.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.
***FLOOD WARNING***
…for Pajaro River At Chittenden in effect now until further notice.
*In coordination with the Pajaro Regional Flood Management Agency as well as Monterey and Santa Cruz Counties flooding is expected to occur below official flood stage along the Monterey County portion of the Pajaro River due to observed impacts from the January flood event.
*At 27.5 feet, Water may begin seeping under muscle wall along the Monterey County portion of the levees. At 28 feet, Levee along the Monterey County portion of the Pajaro may overtop. At 29.5 feet, Parts of State Highway 129 between US Highway 101 and Watsonville will flood. The entire Pajaro River will have moderate bank erosion and sediment deposition.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
At 9:00 AM PST Friday the stage was 24.1 feet. Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
this afternoon to a crest of 30.4 feet this evening. It will then fall below flood stage tomorrow evening.
- Flood stage is 32.0 feet.
- Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 29.5 feet on 01/03/1997 and 27.7 feet on 01/11/2023.
***FLOOD WARNING***
… for the Carmel River in effect now until further notice.
*Minor flooding is forecast.
*At 8.5 feet, Low lying homes from Camp Steffani to below Robles del Rio will begin to flood. Old Odello Ranch near Carmel begins to flood. Homes along Paso Hondo and Dampierre Park
subject to flooding.
- At 1:15 PM PST Thursday the stage was 3.2 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage early tomorrow afternoon to a crest of 8.7 feet tomorrow afternoon. It will then fall below flood stage tomorrow evening.
- Flood stage is 8.5 feet.
- Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 9.0 feet on 01/14/2023.
**FLOOD ADVISORY**
…for southern portions of Monterey and San Benito counties. Some locations include Soledad, Greenfield, King City, San Ardo, San Lucas and Bradley. In effect until 5pm this afternoon.
*Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.
*Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas. River or stream flows are elevated. This includes the San Lorenzo Creek.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
At 1139 AM PST, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain. Minor flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly in the advisory area. Between 1 and 2 inches of rain have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are expected over the area. This additional rain will result in minor
flooding.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.
Keep children away from storm drains, culverts, creeks and streams. Water levels can rise rapidly and sweep children away.
**FLOOD ADVISORY**
… for portions of Santa Cruz County from the city of Santa Cruz east to Day Valley and all areas south and east to the Monterey County line in effect EXTENDED 4PM Friday.
Rain, heavy at times, will continue through the afternoon Friday. Gauges at Soquel Creek and Corralitos Creek have risen rapidly, so flooding is likely occuring near these creeks.
-Urban and small stream flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.
-Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas. River or stream flows are elevated.
- At 137 AM PST, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated heavy rain. This will cause urban and small stream flooding. Between 1.5 and 3 inches of rain have fallen.
- Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are expected over the area. This additional rain will result in minor flooding.
- Some locations that will experience flooding include... Santa Cruz, Watsonville, Corralitos, Capitola, Live Oak, Freedom, Amesti, Rio Del Mar, Aptos, Brown Valley Road, Interlaken, Soquel, Opal Cliffs, Twin Lakes, Aptos Hills- Larkin, Aptos Hills-Larkin Valley, Day Valley and Pajaro.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.
Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the dangers of flooding.
Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.
**FLOOD ADVISORY**
…for Portions of Southern Santa Clara County, including Gilroy and San Martin, and Northern portions of San Benito County including Hollister. In effect until 10:30am Friday
* Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas. Water over roadways. River or stream flows are elevated.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
At 435 AM PST, emergency management reported flooding in the advisory area. Heavy rain continuing will cause urban and small stream flooding. Between 1.5 and 3 inches of rain have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 1.5 inches are expected over the area. This additional rain will result in minor
flooding.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.
**FLOOD ADVISORY**
…for all of Monterey County EXTENDED until 7 PM Friday. Including areas: Salinas, Southern Monterey Bay, Monterey Peninsula, Salinas Valley, Arroyo Seco, Big Sur Coast, Carmel-By-The- Sea, Carmel Valley Village, the Santa Lucia Range. Los Padres Dam, Julia Pfeiffer Burns State Park and Esalen
Institute.
*Small stream flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.
*Portions of central California and northern California, including the following counties, in central California, Monterey and San Benito. In northern California, Santa Cruz.
*Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas. River or stream flows are elevated.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
At 340 AM PST, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated heavy rain. This will cause small stream flooding. Between 2 and 5 inches of rain have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 5 inches are expected over the area. This additional rain will result in minor flooding.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.
Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the dangers of flooding. Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.
**FLOOD ADVISORY**
… for portions of Santa Cruz County including areas Santa Cruz, Scotts Valley, Boulder Creek and Ben Lomond, until 12:30pm Friday.
*Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas, urban areas and small streams.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
At 632 AM PST, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated heavy rain. Minor flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly in the advisory area. Between 3 and 6 inches
of rain have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are expected
over the area. This additional rain will result in minor flooding.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.
In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to cross flooded roads. Find an alternate route.
**FLOOD ADVISORY**
…for portions of Monterey and San Benito counties, some locations include Hollister, Corralitos, Ridgemark, Prunedale, Interlaken, San Juan Bautista and Aromas. In effect until 5pm.
*Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.
* Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas. River or stream flows are elevated.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
At 1058 AM PST, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain. Minor flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly in the advisory area. Between 2 and 3 inches of rain have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are expected over the area. This additional rain will result in minor flooding.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Keep children away from storm drains, culverts, creeks and streams. Water levels can rise rapidly and sweep children away.
*FLOOD WATCH*
… for the entire KION coverage area in Monterey, Santa Cruz, San Benito, and Santa Clara Counties in effect through Sunday morning.
A strong winter storm will impact the region Thursday into Friday with showers lingering into Saturday. This system is tapping into very moist subtropical moisture which will allow for moderate to periods of heavy precipitation. Latest model guidance suggests the coastal slopes of the Santa Cruz Mountains and Santa Lucia Mountains will receive the greatest accumulation of precipitation.
*Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.
*Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Creeks and streams will see rapid rises. Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas. Low-water crossings may be flooded. Storm drains and ditches may become clogged with debris.
*Rainfall totals will range from 1.5 to 4 inches. Locally up to 6-8 inches over favored peaks and higher terrain of the Santa Lucia Mountains where prolonged moderate to heavy precipitation and higher rain rates are currently forecast. Pre-existing saturated soils will not be able to absorb
excess rainfall. Urban and small stream flooding is expected along with a 25% exceedance probability that some main stem rivers may rise above flood stage.
Continue to monitor the latest forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.
Friday: Temperatures will bump into the 60s during the day. Rain & wind will slowly taper off during the day but additional heavier bursts will be possible. The flooding threat will be highest early in the day on small streams.
***FLOOD WARNING***
…for the Salinas River near Bradley. In effect at midnight until further notice
*Minor flooding is forecast.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
At 4:30 AM PST Friday the stage was 10.2 feet. Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
just after midnight tonight and continue rising to 14.9 feet early Saturday morning. Additional rises are possible thereafter. Flood stage is 14.0 feet. Flood History...No available flood history.
Overnight: Mostly cloudy with rounds of isolated showers. A slight chance of thunderstorms. Some showers could produce brief moderate to heavy rain. Winds much calmer out of the southwest. Mild lows mainly in the upper 40s to low 50s.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. A chance of thunderstorms inland. Thunderstorms could produce brief heavy downpours and gusty winds. Overall winds will breezy throughout the day. Highs slightly warmer, still below average for this time of year, in the low 60s.
Sunday: Partly sunny skies, with rounds of scattered showers. Between showers, could see pockets of sunshine. Southwest winds will continue to be breezy. Slightly warmer yet, with daytime highs in the low to mid 60s.
Extended: Additional rounds will be possible into Saturday and maybe even Sunday. Highs return to normal (if not above) and lows will finally be back above normal. Another wet & heavy storm possible early next week roughly around Tuesday and perhaps another late in the week.
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This week's normal temperatures:
--COASTAL CITIES--
LOW: 45ºF
HIGH: 63ºF
--INLAND CITIES--
LOW: 41ºF
HIGH: 67ºF
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-The outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for March 17th – 23rd calls for the likelihood of BELOW normal temperatures and ABOVE normal precipitation.
- El Niño/La Niña STATUS: La Niña Advisory
- Forecast: Transition to neutral with possible El Niño developing this summer
-Area drought status: Moderate Drought (D1) for the northern Santa Cruz Mountains, San Benito County, southeastern Monterey County and southern Santa Clara County Abnormally dry (D0) for the rest of Monterey & Santa Cruz Counties.
