Big Storm Coming
Air Quality Report (As of 6:00AM)
Good for all reporting areas.
Weather Story: The next, stronger system will arrive late Tuesday into Wednesday morning. This is a slower-moving system packed with moisture. Ahead of it, southerly winds will increase and rain will increase in the coastal mountains. A strong cold front will come accompanied by heavy rain and gusty winds early Wednesday morning. Rainfall rates will put pressure on burn scars leading to the possibility of debris flows. The main threat will press south later in the morning Wednesday, focusing more on Monterey County. Some model solutions show this frontal band either stalling over Monterey County or pushing back north out of SLO County after its initial passage. This repeated exposure could mean significant rainfall amounts for our coastal hills--especially the Santa Lucias. Those planning to travel Highway 1 down the Big Sur Coast Wednesday into Thursday should make alternate plans. Most of the viewing area will see an inch of rain plus, but totals could approach a foot in the Santa Lucias. Debris flows around burn scars will be a good possibility, so if you live on or near a scar, make sure you have a plan in place to stay safe. Additional rainfall possible beyond Thursday as several, weaker systems take aim on the West Coast.
From the National Weather Service in Monterey…
***GALE WARNING***
… for Coastal Waters from Pigeon Point to Point Piedras Blancas out to 10nm through 3AM Tuesday.
Northwest winds 25 to 35 kt with gusts up to 50 kt and seas 12 to 17 feet at 13 seconds expected.
Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.
Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for severe conditions.
Tuesday: Partly cloudy early, then increasing clouds. Cool, with highs in the upper 40s to low 50s. A few spots on the south side of Monterey Bay may reach the mid 50s. Winds switch to the south and then increase into the evening. Light rain will begin in the afternoon for the coastal mountains and then become a moderate steady rain late.
From the National Weather Service in Monterey…
*Flash Flood Watch*
… for the coastal mountains of Santa Cruz & Monterey Counties and the Diablo Range in Santa Clara County from 4pm Tuesday through 4pm Thursday.
-A moderate atmospheric river will impact the region Tuesday through Thursday bringing prolonged periods of moderate to heavy rain along with gusty south winds. The brunt of the storm is forecast to occur between Tuesday evening through Wednesday.
- High confidence that thresholds for debris flows will be met for the following 2020 burn scars: CZU, SCU, Carmel/River, and Dolan. For non-burn scar areas, there could be rapid ponding of water in urban areas, and low lying areas with poor drainage. We also cannot rule out slides or wash outs in areas of steep terrain.
If you live near or on a burn scar: make sure you are signed up for your county's reverse 911 or other alert system and have a "go bag" ready. Monitor the weather for forecast updates and heed local official orders.
***HIGH WIND WARNING***
… for the Santa Cruz Mountains and Northern Monterey Bay from 7PM Tuesday until 7AM Wednesday.
South winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph expected, locally up to 70 mph in southwest facing slopes and coastal areas.
… for the Santa Lucia Range/Los Padres National Forecast, Southern Monterey Bay and the Big Sur Coast from 7PM Tuesday until 1PM Wednesday
-South winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph expected, locally up to 70 mph in southwest facing slopes and coastal areas.
Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.
People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if you must drive.
**Wind Advisory**
… for Santa Clara County from 7PM Tuesday until 7AM Wednesday
… for the San Benito County and the inland valleys and mountains of Monterey County from 7PM Tuesday until 1PM Wednesday.
-South winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 55 mph expected, locally in excess of 60 mph in the ridges and peaks.
Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.
Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.
*Storm Warning*
… for the Monterey Bay, Coastal Waters from Point Pinos to Point Piedras Blancas & Coastal Waters from Pigeon Point to Point Pinos from 9pm Tuesday evening through 9am Wednesday morning.
-South winds 30 to 40 kt with gusts up to 55 kt and seas 10 to 15 feet at 14 seconds possible.
Very strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.
Mariners should prepare to remain in port, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for severe conditions before conditions deteriorate.
*Marine Weather Statement*
… for the Monterey Bay, Coastal Waters from Point Pinos to Point Piedras Blancas & Coastal Waters from Pigeon Point to Point Pinos
-Gusty northwest winds and seas keep small craft advisories in place for Tuesday morning. By late Tuesday morning and into the afternoon, the leading edge of an atmospheric river will move from north to south over the waters. Winds will shift to the south- southwest and increase dramatically. Storm Warning gusts to 50 kts at times is expected. Rain will be moderate to heavy at times. Winds will be stronger near heaviest rainfall while seas will be choppy.
There is also a slight chance of thunderstorms across the waters through Tuesday afternoon. The thunderstorms will follow the same north to south trajectory, so the initial threat will be off the Sonoma coast and Point Reyes late Tuesday morning, then southward past Pigeon Point and Point Sur Tuesday afternoon and into Tuesday evening.
The high winds and rough seas will be capable of causing damage to vessels and loss of life and mariners should avoid these conditions or remain in safe harbor until conditions improve. Any thunderstorms that form will be capable of producing strong cross winds, dangerous lightning, heavy rainfall with reduced visibility.
Overnight: A strong cold front will move through overnight with a period of heavy rain and potentially damaging winds, especially for exposed coastal areas. Rainfall rates may cause hydrological issues for burn scars. Overnight lows in the 40s for most.
Extended: The cold front will then sweep to the south through late morning on Wednesday. It will then likely stall somewhere in our southern mountains or perhaps on the southern Central Coast. Rainfall totals may vary wildly depending on the stall point and how far north it undulates after it stalls. Even if it doesn’t make it back to our viewing area, showers will continue to pile into the area into Thursday. This is a warmer, moist air mass and temperatures will likely increase slightly—we’re talking upper 50s instead of low 50s. There is still some uncertainty in the forecast, so please stay tuned to my updates. Beyond the Wednesday/Thursday system, the weather will remain unsettled, but not quite as stormy through the weekend.
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This week's normal temperatures:
--COASTAL CITIES--
LOW: 43ºF
HIGH: 60ºF
--INLAND CITIES--
LOW: 37ºF
HIGH: 62ºF
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-The outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for February 2nd – 8th calls for the likelihood of BELOW normal temperatures and BELOW normal precipitation.
-El Niño/La Niña STATUS: Moderate La Niña
-Forecast into Winter: La Niña Advisory
-Area drought status: Moderate drought most of our viewing area. A small slice of southeastern Santa Clara and northeastern San Benito Counties are considered to be in Severe Drought.
