Tracking Rain From Bomb Cyclone
Not quite as cold this morning with more moisture streaming in from the bomb cyclone to our north. Clouds will thicken with slight rain chances today, especially north of Monterey Bay and Santa Cruz County, as this intense storm system takes shape out over the open Pacific. This storm system—along with attached atmospheric river will pack quite the wallop for the Oregon and Northern California Coast. We’ll be on the southern far edge of it beginning today, but initial impacts will be very limited. See more in the extended section below.
AIR QUALITY: Good to Moderate
Today: Cloudy skies with rain chances especially in Santa Cruz county. Highs a bit warmer, in the low to mid 60s. Southerly winds will begin to increase, turning gusty.
Overnight: Mostly cloudy with slight chance of rain and breezy. Lows in the low 40s to low 50s.
Thursday: AM rain chances with most cloudy skies then some clearing with sunshine with gusty winds. Highs warmer in the mid to upper 60s to low 70s in far inland spots.
**HIGH SURF ADVIOSRY**
...for southern Monterey Bay and Big Sur Coast in effect 6 AM Wednesday until 6 AM Friday
*Large Breaking waves between 14-19 feet wave along southwest facing beaches and up to 22 ft along well exposed west facing beaches.
*BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT*
...for northern Monterey Bay until late Thursday evening.
*A moderate period of nw swell will result in a more energetic surf zone and increased risk for sneaker waves and rip currents. Breaking waves up to 15 ft may develop.
**WIND ADVISORY**
..for the North Coast of Santa Cruz County in effect until 6AM Thursday
*South winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph expected.
*Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. The combination of wind and moist soils will increase the risk for
downed trees.
Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution.
Wednesday: Partly cloudy with gusty southerly winds at times. Some light rain with pockets of moderate rainfall possible across Santa Cruz County, but most other areas will remain dry. Warmer, with highs in the 60s for most areas.
***GALE WARNING***
..for the near coastal waters from Pigeon Point to Point Pinos (outside of Monterey Bay) in effect from 9AM Wednesday until 3PM Wednesday
Southeast winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 45 kt and seas 9 to 13 ft expected.
*Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.
Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for hazardous conditions.
Extended: A strengthening ridge to the south will likely push the atmospheric river back north for Thursday, though we may still have to watch for rain in the north. By Friday/Saturday, the weakened AR will likely finally move through the Monterey Bay Area along with a cold front. Widespread rain is expected during the period, but at the moment it doesn’t look all that heavy. Still, this is likely to be the wettest system of the season so far. Some indications show the “storm door” remaining open behind this system which could lead to additional rainfall through the weekend. Lots of things could change—intensity, timing, etc, so please stay tuned to my forecast!
*Note: Any alerts from the National Weather Service in Monterey will be noted in italics above. Alerts may be edited for brevity or local clarification
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This week's normal temperatures:
--COASTAL CITIES--
LOW: 45ºF
HIGH: 63ºF
--INLAND CITIES--
LOW: 40ºF
HIGH: 66ºF
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-The outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for November 26th – December 2nd calls for the likelihood of BELOW normal temperatures and ABOVE normal precipitation.
- ENSO (El Niño/La Niña) STATUS: La Niña Watch
- ENSO Forecast: Transition to La Niña into the fall and persist through the winter months.
- Area drought status: Abnormally dry for areas around Monterey Bay northward. Drought-free elsewhere.
- Monterey Bay Sea Surface Temperature as of November 19th : 53.4ºF (avg of 7 buoys) [November Average: 56.6ºF]
