Dry Day But Tracking Rain
After a chilly start with subfreezing temperatures in parts of the region, today will be dry with sunshine. However, clouds will on the increase throughout the day. We will stay on the cool side as well. High clouds will thicken as a storm system takes shape out over the open Pacific. This storm system—a (likely) “bomb cyclone” with attached atmospheric river will pack quite the wallop for the Oregon and Northern California Coast. We’ll be on the southern far edge of it by Wednesday, but initial impacts will be very limited. See more in the extended section below.
AIR QUALITY: Good to Moderate
Today: High clouds increase and become thick at times during the day. Highs remain cool, in the mid-50s to low 60s. Light winds for most areas initially. Southerly winds will begin to increase out over the water late in the day.
Overnight: Increasing clouds with mostly cloudy skies with lows in the low 30s and 40s inland and low to upper 40s coastal. Slight chance of rain in the northern communities.
**WIND ADVISORY**
..for the North Coast of Santa Cruz County in effect from 10PM Tuesday until 6AM Thursday
*South winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph expected.
*Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. The combination of wind and moist soils will increase the risk for
downed trees.
Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution.
Wednesday: Partly cloudy with gusty southerly winds at times. Some light rain with pockets of moderate rainfall possible across Santa Cruz County, but most other areas will remain dry. Warmer, with highs in the 60s for most areas.
***GALE WARNING***
..for the near coastal waters from Pigeon Point to Point Pinos (outside of Monterey Bay) in effect from 9AM Wednesday until 3PM Wednesday
Southeast winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 45 kt and seas 9 to 13 ft expected.
*Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.
Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for hazardous conditions.
Extended: A strengthening ridge to the south will likely push the atmospheric river back north for Thursday, though we may still have to watch for rain in the north. By Friday/Saturday, the weakened AR will likely finally move through the Monterey Bay Area along with a cold front. Widespread rain is expected during the period, but at the moment it doesn’t look all that heavy. Still, this is likely to be the wettest system of the season so far. Some indications show the “storm door” remaining open behind this system which could lead to additional rainfall through the weekend. Lots of things could change—intensity, timing, etc, so please stay tuned to my forecast!
*Note: Any alerts from the National Weather Service in Monterey will be noted in italics above. Alerts may be edited for brevity or local clarification
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This week's normal temperatures:
--COASTAL CITIES--
LOW: 45ºF
HIGH: 63ºF
--INLAND CITIES--
LOW: 40ºF
HIGH: 66ºF
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-The outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for November 26th – December 2nd calls for the likelihood of BELOW normal temperatures and ABOVE normal precipitation.
- ENSO (El Niño/La Niña) STATUS: La Niña Watch
- ENSO Forecast: Transition to La Niña into the fall and persist through the winter months.
- Area drought status: Abnormally dry for areas around Monterey Bay northward. Drought-free elsewhere.
- Monterey Bay Sea Surface Temperature as of November 19th : 53.4ºF (avg of 7 buoys) [November Average: 56.6ºF]
