Surf & Frost Alerts
Our active weather pattern continues with a weather system arriving on Wednesday! Clouds will increase through the day with a weak cold front moving in after dark. Some light rain is possible ahead of and along the front, but it is looking like it will be mostly contained to the Monterey Bay area and probably not much farther south & east. A deep trough will then dig in over the West Coast bringing cool, unsettled weather through Friday.
AIR QUALITY: Good to Moderate
**HIGH SURF ADVISORY**…for the immediate coast of Monterey & Santa Cruz Counties in effect until 6AM Wednesday
*Large breaking waves up to 20ft on steep, NW-facing beaches.
*Dangerous swimming and surfing conditions and localized beach erosion. Large waves can sweep across the beach without warning, pulling people into the sea from rocks, jetties and beaches. Sudden immersion in cold water can result in cold water shock even for the most experienced swimmers. Cold water shock can result in dramatic changes in breathing, heart rate and blood pressure, greatly increasing the risk of drowning in rough open waters.
Northwest facing beaches are most at risk for large turbulent shore break and strong currents.
Inexperienced swimmers should remain out of the water due to dangerous surf conditions. Another round of high surf arrives Thursday, with similar impacts expected.
**FROST ADVISORY**
…for the southern valleys of Monterey County in effect until 8AM Wednesday morning.
-Temperatures as low as 33 will result in frost formation.
*Frost could harm sensitive outdoor vegetation. Sensitive outdoor plants may be killed if left uncovered. Cold conditions will be hazardous to sensitive populations such as unhoused individuals.
Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.
Overnight: Mostly clear with a few high clouds passing through. Patchy fog possible in low, sheltered, damp areas. Expect lows in the upper 30s to mid-40s on the coast and low 30s to low 40s inland. Patchy frost possible in higher inland valleys.
Wednesday: Mostly clear early with high clouds passing through. Then, increasing clouds throughout the day, especially along the coast. Light rain will be possible around the Monterey Bay, especially in Santa Cruz County from the late afternoon and into the evening with isolated showers possible in the northern valleys and farther south along the coast. Rainfall will be very light at best. Expect highs in the upper 50s to mid-60s on the coast and low 60s to around 70ºF for inland valleys. Breezy up-valley winds in the afternoon and evening.
Thursday: Partly cloudy with an isolated shower possible. Cool and breezy—even windy for inland valleys—with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s for most areas. Slight chance of an isolated thunderstorm late.
**HIGH SURF ADVISORY**
…for the immediate coastline of Monterey & Santa Cruz Counties in effect from 7AM Thursday until 11AM Saturday.
*Large breaking waves of 12 to 15 ft with up to 18 ft along steep NW facing beaches.
* IMPACTS...Dangerous swimming and surfing conditions and localized beach erosion. Large waves can sweep across the beach without warning, pulling people into the sea from rocks, jetties and beaches. Sudden immersion in cold water can result in cold water shock even for the most experienced swimmers. Cold water shock can result in dramatic changes in breathing, heart rate and blood pressure, greatly increasing the risk of drowning in rough open waters.
*Northwest facing beaches are most at risk for large turbulent shore break and strong currents. Another round of high surf arrives Thursday, with similar impacts expected.
Inexperienced swimmers should remain out of the water due to dangerous surf conditions.
Extended: Shower chances continue overnight into Friday with an isolated thunderstorm possible. Then, we’ll see partial clearing as the day progresses with dry weather returning. Temperatures will be very cool with most areas only topping out in the 50s! We’ll warm up a bit on Saturday, but it will still be cool & dry. Saturday and Sunday mornings are looking very chilly with patchy frost for inland valleys. The next system should be here late Sunday, but it is only likely to clip us with light rain at best. It will be followed by some gusty winds, though! Winds may last through Monday before high pressure builds in and brings warmer weather mid-week.
*Note: Any alerts from the National Weather Service in Monterey will be noted in italics above. Alerts may be edited for brevity or local clarification
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This week's normal temperatures:
--COASTAL CITIES--
LOW: 46ºF
HIGH: 66ºF
--INLAND CITIES--
LOW: 41ºF
HIGH: 69ºF
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-The outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for November 20th – 26th calls for the likelihood of near normal temperatures and BELOW normal precipitation.
- ENSO (El Niño/La Niña) STATUS: La Niña Watch
- ENSO Forecast: Transition to La Niña into the fall and persist through the winter months.
- Area drought status: Abnormally dry for areas around Monterey Bay northward. Drought-free elsewhere.
- Monterey Bay Sea Surface Temperature as of November 13th : 53.7ºF (avg of 7 buoys) [November Average: 56.6ºF]
