Dry & Windy
Fire danger will remain high into Saturday as an extremely dry air mass settles into the region. Dry, offshore winds will continue, but slowly ease on Saturday. Expect cool nights and warm days into early next week with mostly sunny skies. We’ll get a bit of an onshore push Sunday into Monday, which could bring some fog back to the coast temporarily.
AIR QUALITY: Good to Moderate
***RED FLAG WARNING***
…for all inland areas and coastal mountains of Monterey, Santa Cruz, San Benito, and Santa Clara Counties and now including coastal Santa Cruz County in effect until 5PM Saturday
Gusty north-northeast winds are expected to develop as an "inside slider" system moves into the Great Basin this weekend. Humidities are expected to quickly dry out as low as 10% Friday and Saturday. Most areas across the region will be affected to some degree, with likely exceptions being the immediate Big Sur coast, Monterey Bay coast, and the Marin/Sonoma coast. Winds largely on the order of 25-35 mph can be expected with gusts to 45 mph...isolated gusts to 65 mph across the highest terrain and ridgetops, most notably the North Bay Interior Mountains and the Diablo Range.
*WINDS...North 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 40mph
*HUMIDITY…As low as 8 percent.
*LIGHTNING...None.
* IMPACTS...The combination of gusty winds and low humidity can cause fire to rapidly grow in size and intensity. Outdoor burning is not recommended. Despite recent cool weather and high humidity, we are expecting a widespread and prolonged offshore wind event which will likely dry fuels out very quickly given their volatility over the past several weeks.
A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now...or will shortly. A combination of strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can contribute to extreme fire behavior.
Overnight: Mostly clear with a few thin high clouds passing through. Gusty northerly winds at times in the mountains, occasionally mixing down into the lower elevations. Lows in the 40s for most areas with a few sheltered valleys dropping into the 30s.
Saturday: Mostly sunny and breezy at times. Dry and warm with highs in the 70s to low 80s.
Sunday: Scattered high clouds and slightly cooler with highs in the upper 60s to 70s on the coast and 70s to low 80s inland. Some fog possible on the coast late.
Extended: We’ll be a little cooler on Monday as onshore flow deepens slightly. However, the ridge to our southeast will build back northward, warming us up again through mid-week. We’re tracking a weak weather system which will pass by late in the week. It could bring some light precipitation, but there are no guarantees at this point.
*Note: Any alerts from the National Weather Service in Monterey will be noted in italics above. Alerts may be edited for brevity or local clarification
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This week's normal temperatures:
--COASTAL CITIES--
LOW: 51ºF
HIGH: 71ºF
--INLAND CITIES--
LOW: 46ºF
HIGH: 78ºF
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-The outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for October 26th – November 1st calls for the likelihood of near normal temperatures and ABOVE normal precipitation.
- ENSO (El Niño/La Niña) STATUS: La Niña Watch
- ENSO Forecast: Transition to La Niña into the fall and persist through the winter months.
- Area drought status: Abnormally dry for areas around Monterey Bay northward. Drought-free elsewhere.
- Monterey Bay Sea Surface Temperature as of October 19th : 57.2ºF (avg of 7 buoys)
