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Little Warm Up On The Way

Your forecast for Monterey, Santa Cruz, San Benito, and southern Santa Clara Counties…

Temperatures will warm for most but not all areas on Monday. An upper level trough will cut off a low just to our south, allowing the stronger ridge to our southwest to sneak in. Inland temperatures will warm 2-6ºF, while most coastal areas will remain steady as the encroaching ridge stabilizes the marine layer and makes afternoon clouds easier to maintain. The ridge strengthens further on Tuesday, sending inland temps up another 3-8ºF and we’ll finally see some warming on the coast as well. It will be short-lived, however. The cut-off low to our south will start to feel the pull of a trough well to the north, and in the coming days, will be absorbed back into the main flow. As a result, the marine layer will start to deepen again on Wednesday with a southerly surge of clouds returning to the bay. We may get another taste of June Gloom through the end of the week on the coast.

AIR QUALITY: Good to Moderate

Monday: Low clouds will remain over some coastal areas into the afternoon, including the east side of Monterey Bay, the south/east sides of the Monterey Peninsula and in and around Carmel Bay. Otherwise, expect mostly sunny skies in the afternoon. Coastal highs 60ºF to 71ºF—warmest on the north side of the bay—and a range of 72ºF-94ºF inland. Breezy up-valley winds in the afternoon and early evening.

Overnight: Low clouds will thicken around the bay this evening, become mostly cloudy overnight at the coast. Low clouds will fill nearby valleys, but not likely to be as widespread. Inland partly cloudy to mostly clear. Patchy fog possible by dawn. Winds will remain calm.

Tuesday: A few morning low clouds and fog, then mostly sunny with a few high clouds passing through. Warmer, with coastal highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s—warmest on the north side of the bay—and 80s to around 100ºF inland. Breezy up-valley winds in the afternoon and early evening.

…for the Gabilan Range, Cholame Hills, and southeastern valleys of Monterey County, the mountains and southern valleys of San Benito County, and the Santa Clara Valley & Diablo Range in Santa Clara County in effect from 11AM Tuesday until 8PM Tuesday.

*Maximum temperatures expected to reach the mid to upper 90s.

*Those sensitive to heat, such as the homeless, elderly, children, and pets will be at risk for heat-related illnesses.

Those without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration will be at the greatest risk.

Drink plenty of fluids, stay cool, stay out of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors.

Monitor the latest forecasts and warnings for updates.

Extended: We’ll cool back down through the end of the week with lingering coastal clouds. Some warming then expected through the weekend. Expect subtle changes after the short-lived warm up Tuesday.

*Note: Any alerts from the National Weather Service in Monterey will be noted in italics above. Alerts may be edited for brevity or local clarification (in parenthesis).
This week's normal temperatures:
LOW: 52ºF
HIGH: 68ºF

LOW: 49ºF
HIGH: 81ºF
-The outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for June 17th – 23rd calls for the likelihood of ABOVE normal temperatures and near normal precipitation.

- ENSO (El Niño/La Niña) STATUS: 
El Niño Advisory, La Niña Watch
- ENSO Forecast: Transition from El Niño to neutral soon and then to La Niña by summer.
- Area drought status: Currently drought-free
- Monterey Bay Sea Surface Temperature* as of June 10th : 
(Historic June AVG: 56.7ºF)

*average of three buoys

Article Topic Follows: Local Forecast

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Erika Bratten

Erika Bratten is a weather forecaster for KION News Channel 5/46.


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