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Mid Week Storm Concerns

WEATHER STORY
Our typical "June gloom" is nowhere to be found as we are forecasting another spell of above average temperatures this week. Inland will feel the largest impact of the heat, but even the coast will feel much warmer than usual. Tuesday is the peak of the warming trend, then late Wednesday conditions may become unstable due to the arrival of monsoonal moisture. These conditions are likely to support the development of a couple isolated thunderstorms and even dry lightning strikes through early Thursday morning. Otherwise, the warm air mass will linger through the next several days, bringing a majority of 90s to inland areas even into the start of next week. Remain fire aware, and keep a close eye on the forecast for important updates.


AIR QUALITY: GOOD

***HEAT ADVISORY***
for all inland hills and valleys within Santa Clara, Santa Cruz, Monterey, and San Benito Counties u
ntil 10 PM Tuesday night.

Expect extremely hot and dry conditions with inland high temperatures in the upper 90s and 100s. Overnight lows will be in the 60s.

Risk for heat-related illnesses including but not limited to dehydration, heat exhaustion, and heat stroke is extremely elevated in these conditions. Drink lots of water and try to limit time outside as much as possible. For those who work outdoors, take regular breaks to cool down and re hydrate. Do not walk pets if the pavement is too hot for your hand to touch. Heat-sensitive individuals such as children, pets, the elderly, and those without access to an air conditioned environment should be monitored closely. Finally, children and pets should never be left unattended in a car or any hot environment, regardless of the circumstance.

Overnight: Temperatures are expected to stay comfortable/mild, with lows in the 50s and 60s. Very little wind is expected, but the direction of flow will gradually shift and take on a southwesterly orientation. Patchy low clouds are possible around coastal Monterey Bay.

Wednesday: Inland may not see quite as many spots in the triple digits Wednesday, but overall there will be little relief from the heat. The average inland high will be 95 degrees, and even coastal cities will lean toward upper 80s. Keep a close eye on the skies beginning late afternoon as a push of monsoonal moisture has the potential to cause isolated thunderstorms and dry lightning strikes in the area. Any lightning strike will pose a significant wildfire threat, so it is essential to have an emergency plan as well as a reliable way of receiving local weather alerts.

Thursday: The threat of isolated thunderstorms and dry lightning will linger all the way through the very early hours of Thursday morning. By afternoon, the risk of storms should be diminished and we will be seeing another round of very hot temperatures.

Extended: Tuesday may have been the peak of the warming trend, but the heat isn't necessarily going anywhere. Upper 90s and low 100s are likely to be seen across the interior through Thursday while we'll see a majority of upper 70s to mid 80s at the coast. We are seeing increased probability of monsoonal moisture to the southwest causing some unstable conditions in our area late Wednesday/early Thursday. This should be the only impacted timeframe, after which we are expected to get more heat and sunshine.

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This week's normal temperatures:

--COASTAL CITIES--
LOW: 52ºF
HIGH: 69ºF

--INLAND CITIES--
LOW: 50ºF
HIGH: 83ºF

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-The outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for June 24th – 30th calls for the likelihood of ABOVE normal temperatures and near normal* precipitation.

*Note: Little to no precipitation typically falls this time of year.
- El Niño/La Niña STATUS: La Niña Advisory

- Forecast: Weak La Niña into the Fall

-Area drought status: “
Severe Drought” for most of the viewing area with “Extreme Drought” in southern San Benito and southeastern Monterey Counties. The southeastern third of San Benito County has been upgraded to “Exceptional Drought”

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Courtney Aitken

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