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Active Weather Persists

WEATHER STORY
A complex weather system will slowly unroll on the West Coast over the next two days. The initial cold front will moved through the last night with light to moderate rain and a few wind gusts. As we head into this afternoon, we will see several disturbances and an unstable atmosphere which will result in several rounds of showers with the potential for embedded thunderstorms. Any thunderstorms could have downpours, small hail, and lightning. There is a slight chance for storms to rotate Thursday afternoon which could lead to a funnel cloud or a brief, weak tornado. The threat is quite low, but still exists. The shower & thunderstorm threat will taper off overnight into Friday, through there still may be one or two organized lines of showers during that period. High pressure builds in through the weekend with warmer, dryer weather expected.

AIR QUALITY: GOOD

*Beach Hazards* (via NWS)
… for all local beaches from late tonight through Friday night.

A long period swell of 18 to 20 seconds arrives early Thursday morning with swell heights over 12 feet from coastal Sonoma County to coastal Monterey County. The swell arrives over the northern waters early Thursday morning, moving southward impacting area beaches through Thursday evening into Friday morning, resulting in a high risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents. Swell periods will diminish slightly to 15 to 17 seconds on Friday, but the risk for sneaker waves and rip currents will persist. Additionally during this time period, the high energy of this swell may result in larger breaking waves in the surf zone from 14 to 18 feet. Swell heights and periods are expected to diminish below risk threshold Friday overnight into Saturday.

*A strong northwest swell at 18 to 20 seconds associated with swell heights over 12 feet arrives early Thursday morning, impacting area beaches with breaking waves of 14 to 18 feet possible through Friday.

*.High risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents. Larger breaking waves in the surf zone may be possible.

* Stay well away from the shoreline, expect dangerous, potentially deadly high risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents. Stay off coastal rocks and jetties. Keep children close, keep pets on leashes, and never turn your back to the ocean. This swell may also provide occasional larger
breaking waves in the surf zone from 14 to 18 feet..

Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous swimming conditions.


Thursday: Mostly cloudy with rounds of showers throughout the day. Some rounds may include embedded thunderstorms, especially during the afternoon. There is a small chance of a strong thunderstorm during this period with downpours, gusty winds, hail, lightning, and a brief, weak tornado. With or without showers, winds could be gusty at times during the afternoon. Highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

Overnight: Rain activity will become more isolated and spotty in the hours following nightfall. Showers will be moderate for the most part. Expect wet roads for the morning commute. Lows will be in the mid to upper 40s inland, with mostly upper 40s at the coast.

Friday: Showers taper off overnight leading to partly cloudy skies Friday afternoon with just an isolated shower possible. Cooler and windy at times with highs in the 50s-60s.

Extended: Expect mostly sunny skies with building high pressure this weekend. Temperatures will warm closer to normal on the coast and above normal inland by Sunday then level off there into early next week before some cooling mid-week.

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This week's normal temperatures:

--COASTAL CITIES--
LOW: 47ºF
HIGH: 66ºF

--INLAND CITIES--
LOW: 43ºF
HIGH: 72ºF

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-The outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for April 28th – May 4th calls for the likelihood of BELOW normal temperatures and near normal precipitation.
- El Niño/La Niña STATUS: La Niña Advisory

- Forecast: Weak La Niña into the Fall

-Area drought status: “
Severe Drought” for most of the viewing area with the far eastern fringes of Santa Benito and southeastern corner of Monterey County in “Extreme Drought.”

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Courtney Aitken

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