Next Storm On The Way
Back to stormy conditions on Thursday! A fast moving low pressure system will ride along the jet stream and move into our area bringing wind and rain. The initial wave of rain will come with the warm front Thursday morning. Then, we’ll remain in mild southerly flow for the remainder of the day as moisture continues to stream in from the southwest, favoring coastal mountains. The cold front will arrive mid to late evening with a wind shift and a temporary end to the rain. Showers will then follow into Friday.
Air Quality: Good to Moderate
Overnight: Increasing clouds and southerly flow slowly developing. Lows in the low to mid 40s for most areas with some 30s in northern valleys before the clouds arrive.
**FROST ADVISORY** (NOTE: I do not believe this alert to be necessary – dc)
… in effect from 12AM Thursday until 9AM Thursday for the southern valleys of Monterey County
*Temperatures 34 to 36 degrees will result in frost formation.
*Cold conditions will be hazardous to sensitive populations such as unhoused individuals. Cold Conditions can lead to hypothermia with prolonged exposure.
*Damp conditions from recent rain will make it feel colder.
Thursday: Mostly cloudy with persistent rain in the coastal mountains and on and off rain elsewhere. Rain-shadowing will limit precipitation for inland valleys. Gusty southerly winds at times, especially on the exposed coast and in the mountains. Highs in the low 60s for most areas except 50s north of Monterey Bay. Winds peak in the early evening as the cold front comes through, then ease slightly and shift more to the west.
***GALE WARNING***
…for the near coastal waters from Point Pinos to Point Piedras Blancas in effect from 9AM Thursday until 3AM Friday.
*South winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt expected.
*Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.
Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for hazardous conditions.
Friday: Mostly cloudy early with a few showers, then becoming partly cloudy with scattered showers in the early afternoon, tapering off late afternoon. Northwesterly winds will be occasionally gusty. Cooler, with highs in the 50s.
Extended: We’ll remain in cool northwest flow through the weekend and into next week. Limited cloudcover may help in allowing temperatures to drop at night with patchy frost possible on the coast Saturday through Tuesday and more widespread frosty conditions inland during that period. The next weather system will slide in from the northwest mid to late next week with wind & rain.
*Note: Any alerts from the National Weather Service in Monterey will be noted in italics above. Alerts may be edited for brevity or local clarification.
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This week's normal temperatures:
--COASTAL CITIES--
LOW: 43ºF
HIGH: 61ºF
--INLAND CITIES--
LOW: 38ºF
HIGH: 62ºF
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-The outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for February 13th – 19th calls for the likelihood of BELOW normal temperatures and ABOVE normal precipitation.
- ENSO (El Niño/La Niña) STATUS: La Niña Advisory
- ENSO Forecast: La Niña persists into spring, then transitions to neutral by summer.
- Area drought status: Moderate drought for the eastern valleys of San Benito County and far southeastern Monterey County, abnormally dry for the rest of the KION coverage area in Monterey, Santa Cruz, San Benito, and South Santa Clara Counties.
- Monterey Bay Sea Surface Temperature as of February 6th : 54.4ºF (avg of 5 buoys) [January Average: 54.9ºF]
