Potent Storm System
The next, stronger storm is currently building out over the Pacific. Winds will increase ahead of the storm during the day Friday and really pick up overnight into Saturday morning. The storm will throw a wave of lighter rain at us late Friday night with the heavier rain coming with the cold front Saturday morning. There is some instability, so a thunderstorm along the coast can’t be ruled out. Overall rainfall on Saturday shouldn’t be extreme as the system is moving fast, but street flooding will be possible. Isolated damaging winds are also possible, which could lead to blocked roads and power outages. In addition, another set of higher swells will arrive early Saturday, potentially coinciding with king tides and minor storm surge.
AIR QUALITY: Good
**WIND ADVISORY**
…for the Santa Cruz Mountains and coastal Santa Cruz County in effect now until 10PM Friday, then becoming a HIGH WIND WARNING (see below)
*South winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph expected
Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. The combination of wind and moist soils will increase the risk for
downed trees.
Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution.
Friday: Mostly cloudy early with a chance for light rain, then becoming partly cloudy and dry for the rest of the daylight hours. Slightly warmer with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. Southerly winds slowly picking up, initially breezy along the exposed coast in the afternoon, then becoming stronger in the evening. Light rain possible around the bay late.
**WIND ADVISORY**
…for the Santa Clara Valley and Diablos in Santa Clara County in effect from 7PM Friday until 10AM Saturday.
*Southeast winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph expected.
*Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. The combination of wind and moist soils will increase the risk for downed trees.
Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution.
***GALE WARNING***
…for the near coastal waters from Pigeon Point to Point Pinos (outside of Monterey Bay) in effect from 9PM Friday until 3AM Saturday when it upgrades to a STORM WARNING (see below)
*South winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt and seas 8 to 13 ft expected.
…and for Monterey Bay in effect from 9PM Friday until 9AM Friday
* southeast winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts to 45 kt expected.
…and for the near coastal waters from Point Pinos to Point Piedras Blancas in effect from 9PM Friday until 9AM Saturday
*Southeast winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 45 kt and seas of 7 to 12 ft expected
*Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.
Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for hazardous conditions.
***HIGH WIND WARNING***
… for the Santa Cruz Mountains and coastal Santa Cruz County in effect from 10PM Friday until 7AM Saturday (replacing the Wind Advisory)
*South winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph expected.
*Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Damaging winds could down trees, snap power lines, and result in property damage. Widespread power outages are possible. Travel could be extremely difficult and hazardous, especially for high profile vehicles. The combination of wind and moist soils will increase the risk for downed trees. Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. Strong winds may move loose debris, result in minor damage property, and cause sporadic power outages. Travel could become difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.
People are urged to secure loose objects that could be blown around or damaged by the wind.
Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution.
**WIND ADVISORY**
…for coastal Monterey County in effect from 10PM Friday until 4AM Saturday to be followed by a HIGH WIND WARNING (see below)
*Southeast winds 5 to 15 mph with gusts up to 35 mph expected.
*Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. The combination of wind and moist soils will increase the risk for downed trees.
Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution.
**HIGH SURF ADVISORY**
…for the north & west-facing beaches of Santa Cruz and Monterey Counties in effect from 10PM Friday until 7PM Saturday
*Large breaking waves of 18 to 22 feet expected.
*Dangerous swimming and surfing conditions and localized beach erosion.
Inexperienced swimmers should remain out of the water due to dangerous surf conditions.
**WIND ADVISORY**
…for interior Monterey County and all of San Benito County in effect from 1AM Saturday until 10AM Saturday
*Southeast winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph expected—perhaps up to 50 mph in the Santa Lucia Range
*Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. The combination of wind and moist soils will increase the risk for
downed trees.
Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution.
***STORM WARNING***
…for the near coastal waters from Pigeon Point to Point Pinos in effect from 3AM Saturday until 9AM Saturday.
*South winds 30 to 40 kt with gusts up to 55 kt and seas 10 to 14 ft expected.
*Storm force winds and hazardous seas will capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.
Mariners should remain in port, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for severe conditions.
***HIGH WIND WARNING***
…for coastal Monterey County in effect from 4AM Saturday until 10AM Saturday, following the Wind Advisory for the area
*Southeast winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph expected.
*Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Damaging winds could down trees, snap power lines, and result in property damage. Widespread power outages are possible. Travel could be extremely difficult and hazardous, especially for high profile vehicles. The combination of wind and moist soils will increase the risk for downed trees. Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.
People are urged to secure loose objects that could be blown around or damaged by the wind.
Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution.
*FLOOD WATCH*
…for flood-prone areas around Carmel River Lagoon in Monterey County in effect from 4AM Saturday through late Saturday night
*A combination of abnormally high tide, elevated surf, and excessive rainfall may result in flooding at Carmel River Lagoon.
*Flood-prone areas around Carmel River Lagoon including River Park Place, locations south of 15th Avenue and Mission Ranch.
*Excessive runoff may result in flooding of low-lying and flood-prone locations around the Carmel River Lagoon. Flooding may occur at the Carmel River State Beach parking lot and potentially adjacent neighborhoods south of 15th Avenue.
- Forecast excessive rainfall runoff with high tides and large surf may result in the rise of the Carmel River at the Carmel River Lagoon.
You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.
Saturday: Moderate to briefly heavy rain in the morning hours, then tapering off with a few lingering showers into the afternoon. Slight chance of a thunderstorm on the coast. Gusty and potentially damaging southerly winds at times early, then switching to the northwest and tapering off. Highs in the mid-50s to around 60ºF.
Extended: Dry conditions return on Sunday with the next, weaker system coming late on Monday. High pressure will build in past mid-week which should warm us up a bit. There may be a chance for some brief offshore winds as well.
*Note: Any alerts from the National Weather Service in Monterey will be noted in italics above. Alerts may be edited for brevity or local clarification
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This week's normal temperatures:
--COASTAL CITIES--
LOW: 42ºF
HIGH: 60ºF
--INLAND CITIES--
LOW: 37ºF
HIGH: 60ºF
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-The outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for December 21st – 27th calls for the likelihood of ABOVE normal temperatures and near normal precipitation.
- ENSO (El Niño/La Niña) STATUS: La Niña Watch
- ENSO Forecast: Transition to La Niña into the fall and persist through the winter months.
- Area drought status: Abnormally dry for areas around Monterey Bay northward. Drought-free elsewhere
- Monterey Bay Sea Surface Temperature as of December 12th : 54.3ºF (avg of 7 buoys) [December Average: 55.0ºF]
