Cool Start to the Week, but Fire Concerns Linger
Air Quality Report (As of 7AM)
All reporting stations are good.
Temperatures will continue to slide downward toward the end of the week with periods of high fire danger. The blocking pattern to our west will ease further west in the coming days while a deep trough of low pressure across the northern U.S. digs farther south and backs westward. As this happens, we will be under stronger northwest flow aloft. At the surface, however, we’ll see several burst of north-northeasterly offshore winds in the coming days. These winds will bring gusty, dry conditions to the mountains later in the week and probably again out of the weekend. Each of these bursts of wind will usher in an even cooler air mass.
Tuesday: Low clouds/fog in the morning, then mostly sunny in the afternoon. Seasonable on the coast with highs in the mid-60s to mid-70s but warm inland with 80s to 90s. Briefly breezy in the afternoon.
Overnight: A few low clouds possible, but staying mostly clear. Expect coastal lows in the upper 40s to low 50s with 40s for inland valleys and upper 50s to low 60s in the hills.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny with a few high clouds passing through. Dry gusty winds over the hills. Expect coastal highs in the mid-60s to low 70s with upper 70s to low 90s inland.
…from the National Weather Service in Monterey:
Bursts of gusty offshore winds and dry conditions will develop tonight and carry into the next several days. These weather conditions, in combination with very dry fuels, will result in an increased risk of new wildfire starts and rapid wildfire spread. The first burst will primarily affect the North Bay Mountains Monday night through Wednesday morning. A lull in the offshore winds is expected from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening, but drying will continue and carry over into the second burst. The culmination of offshore winds and very dry fuels, along with very dry conditions are possible from Wednesday night through Friday morning and has the potential to impact higher-terrain locations in the North Bay Mountains, along with locations in the East Bay hills, the Diablo Range, and the Santa Cruz
Mountains.
*FIRE WEATHER WATCH*
… for the Diablo Range in Santa Clara County from Wednesday evening through
Friday morning.
… for the Santa Cruz Mountains from late Wednesday night through Frida morning.
WIND: North to northeast 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph. Winds will be stronger overnight. Locally stronger winds are possible over the higher ridges and peaks.
HUMIDITY: Daytime humidities in the 25-30% range with poor overnight recoveries in the 12-17% range in the Diablos, 15-20% range in the Santa Cruz Mountains.
Any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly. A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible Red Flag Warnings.
Extended: Expect sunnier weather through mid-week with slightly warmer temps, then a big cool-down toward the end of the week under partly cloudy skies. Another bout of offshore winds likely out of the weekend which will increase fire danger once again.
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This week's normal temperatures:
--COASTAL CITIES--
LOW: 49ºF
HIGH: 69ºF
--INLAND CITIES--
LOW: 45ºF
HIGH: 78ºF
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-The outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for October 27th – November 2nd calls for the likelihood of ABOVE normal temperatures and near normal precipitation.
-El Niño/La Niña STATUS: Neutral
-Forecast into Winter: La Niña Advisory
-Area drought status: Moderate drought for much of Santa Cruz & Santa Clara Counties, Abnormally dry on the east shore of the bay into San Benito County. No drought classification for much of Monterey County outside of the Gabilan Range.
