Study: California population drain is real; State is “hemorrhaging” residents to other states
The narrative of California residents and businesses fleeing the Golden State in large numbers, which had been debunked by more than one study since the start of the pandemic, now appears to be taking hold again with new research showing the state is "hemorrhaging" residents to neighboring states.
An October study from the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research (SIEPR) shows California is losing population to states such as Arizona and Texas at higher levels than ever before. The population drain includes a greater share of college graduates and residents across all income levels, according to the study.
California continues to be the nation's most populous state, with more than 39 million residents according to the latest U.S. Census data, which is about 11.7 percent of the U.S. population. Researchers show that while the state's average rate of population growth from 1959 to 2022 was 1.52%, since 2000 it has been consistently below average with negative growth in 2021 and 2022.
As the COVID pandemic eased, California's natural population growth - the number of births vs. the number of deaths - increased from 87,400 to 106,900 from 2021 to 2022, while foreign immigration rose from 31,300 to 90,300.
However, the exodus from the state worsened, with a net of 407,000 residents leaving for other states between July 2021 and July 2022, according to the study.
California's cost of living is often cited as a reason for residents and businesses to move out, which the study said could have serious repercussions for the state's job market and fiscal outlook. California's environmental policies and mandates could also fuel the exodus to other states that have more lenient policies, the study said.
"This is certainly not an argument for abandoning the state's commitments to the California model [of setting aggressive green energy goals], but it suggests paying close attention to the choices that are made in the energy transition to avoid backlash and major economic losses," the SIEPR policy brief said. "California can only be a leader in climate policy if it retains the support of a voting majority in the state and a sufficient level of economic vitality."
The study showed two-thirds of those who moved out of the Golden State said that politics was not a factor in the decision. However, the population drain does result in political consequences, illustrated by the state losing a congressional seat following the 2020 Census while Texas gained two seats.
While some of those who leave California may point to crime as one of the factors, "The perception about higher crime in California, however, does not correspond with the facts and needs to be addressed more aggressively by Golden State political and business leaders," the authors noted.
Eric McGhee, a senior at the nonpartisan think tank Public Policy Institute of California, told the Associated Press last year that California has been losing population to other states for 30 years, saying it's one reason he believes California is "in a period of stagnation for the foreseeable future."
