Ukraine’s allies in disarray as Trump-led diplomacy nears
Analysis by Nick Paton Walsh in London, Alex Marquardt in Washington DC, and Saskya Vandoorne in Paris
(CNN) — A thousand days into Europe’s most grueling war since the Nazis, the starting gun appears to have been fired for peace talks in Ukraine.
Friday’s unilateral move by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz to call Russian President Vladimir Putin ended nearly two years of major NATO leaders isolating the Kremlin head.
It was unmitigated bad news for Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky, in a 72-hour period marked by the White House finally acceding to his request to be able to fire long-range American ATACMs weapons into Russia. Zelensky fumed that the call had opened “Pandora’s Box.” He said: “It is extremely important for (Putin) to weaken his isolation.”
Hours later, Zelensky seemed to acknowledge momentum toward talks, saying when US President-elect Donald Trump takes power “war will end sooner,” as this was the promise Trump had made to his voters.
Scholz said his call with Putin revealed the Russian leader’s hardline positions on Ukraine had not changed but added it was important for Europe to talk to Putin, if Trump was about to do the same.
The hour-long conversation marked the return of diplomacy to the decade-long conflict, even if their talk brought the familiar refrain it was not yet time to talk.
The call threw a wild card into a Western alliance experiencing wide-ranging anxiety over the outcome of the conflict in the light of Trump’s election, according to more than 10 interviews CNN carried out with current and former officials and diplomats over the past week.
One Western official said there was an “overall collective holding of breath” in Western capitals ahead of Trump’s inauguration.
“The Germans speaking to Putin – that will have gone down badly” among Ukraine’s allies, the official said. “Giving Putin that positive bounce will have irked the French and others.” French President Emmanuel Macron has been particularly vocal about continuing support for Ukraine.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk posted on X that Sunday night’s substantial Russian missile assault on Ukraine showed that: “No-one will stop Putin with phone calls … telephone diplomacy cannot replace real support from the whole West for Ukraine. The next weeks will be decisive, not only for the war itself, but also for our future.”
The Biden administration’s decision to permit ATACMs missiles to be fired at Russian territory is perhaps a reflection of the growing sense of escalation in the war, even as possible peace talks loom into view, as all sides seek to improve their position ahead of a Trump presidency.
Analysts said Scholz’s outreach was fueled by imminent German elections.
“Scholz is entering the election campaign as a ‘peacemaker’ to secure votes that might be otherwise drawn to the pro-Moscow bent of some German opposition,” said Alena Epifanova, a research fellow at the German Council on Foreign Relations.
Epifanova said the move might appeal to similar sympathies in Scholz’s own SPD party, but “otherwise it’s very unfortunate for Ukraine.”
A diplomat familiar with the mood inside NATO headquarters described uncertainty in the alliance as to where Trump would fall on continued support and peace negotiations, describing the next few months ahead as critical on the battlefield in Ukraine.
The uncertainty was echoed by a senior Ukrainian intelligence official, who told CNN: “It is very dangerous to make predictions now. We hope for the best!”
Most analysts speculate any deal would involve an approximate freezing of the front lines, with Moscow and Kyiv making or receiving security guarantees to prevent the conflict reigniting. Russia continues to make small yet consistent gains on the eastern front line, and would swallow about a fifth of Ukraine were the front lines negotiated into new permanent borders. Kremlin critics also warn of its history of using diplomacy as a pause or foil to pursuing its military goals.
A French defense official said: “Discussions surrounding the future of Ukraine have gone into overdrive” since Trump’s election, at the heart of which were security guarantees for Ukraine.
“What kind of concessions will Russia agree to?” the official asked. “Does Russia keep all the areas it has seized? And, if we freeze the status quo, will the war really be over? Can there be peace? Or will we see acts of sabotage and subversion?”
Pledges from the Biden administration and Europe have boosted assistance to Kyiv in the past weeks, aimed at indicating Kyiv’s support is assured for months to come.
A second Western official said a recent G7 agreement to loan $50 billion to Ukraine, based on the profits from frozen Russian assets, “means that essentially Ukraine is financially secure all 2025.”
The details of any Trump peace plan remain unclear, some analysts suggest, as the president-elect has yet to formulate a strategy, or decide on personnel who can. He famously said he could bring the war to an end in a day without saying how he would achieve that.
His incoming national security adviser, Mike Waltz, has said almost nothing on policy since accepting the job, but wrote three days before the election in The Economist that fighting “‘as long as it takes’ in a war of attrition against a larger power is a recipe for failure.”
Allies have struggled to read limited signals from the incoming White House. A European diplomat said: “We take (Trump) at his word that he’ll move to a negotiated settlement,” adding the Trump camp had been guarded when discussing their policy, listening but revealing little, and “not saying ‘here’s the plan.’”
Trump supporters have, in part, sought to dispel the idea the president-elect would seek peace at any cost to Kyiv.
Kurt Volker, Trump’s Ukraine envoy in his first term from 2017 to 2019, said Trump’s opening move must be to “demonstrate strength” so Putin realizes it’s not worth continuing to fight, “then you can figure out the details from there. Trump has said many times: ‘peace through strength.’”
Volker said he thought Trump would issue loans rather than more aid to Ukraine.
“I am not convinced he’s going to cut (it) to zero. I believe it’s going to be a lend-lease program,” which Volker said would garner wide Republican support, referencing a World War Two era program under which US-made materiel was effectively loaned to Allies but not returned.
“It doesn’t cost the taxpayer … ‘Borrow as much money as you need, build up your military, be strong, but you should end the war.’”
Volker said he felt Trump would be influenced by the US “catastrophe” in Afghanistan under Biden.
Trump “wanted to get out of Afghanistan himself, but he never did because he was always told this is what would happen,” Volker said.
“He doesn’t want to have that kind of catastrophe on his watch. He’s going to try to find a way to end the war, but Ukraine survives.”
The appointment of Waltz as national security adviser and nomination of Sen. Marco Rubio to secretary of state – both China hawks – may increase focus on the introduction of North Korean troops and weaponry by Moscow to the front line, Western officials suggested.
The move may backfire for Putin, they said, turning the Ukrainian front line into a more global arena, where the United States must now face down Indo-Pacific foes like Kim Jong Un, and his occasional sponsor Beijing.
A former US diplomat familiar with Trump’s approach explained the president-elect’s controversially friendly attitude toward the Kremlin head stemmed from Trump not wanting to “demonize adversaries or people he has to cut deals with.”
They added: “He’ll take policy decisions that are tough, or allow others to do that,” but wants to “have a relationship.”
The former diplomat said Moscow’s deceptive history in negotiations was why Kyiv must be properly armed as part of any settlement. “Putin won’t be sincere – let’s be clear,” the diplomat said.
“He’s going to ask for things that are unreasonable. And then even if he agrees to a ceasefire, he’s going to still then plan on attacking again later.”
The-CNN-Wire
™ & © 2024 Cable News Network, Inc., a Warner Bros. Discovery Company. All rights reserved.
