Fed’s rate hikes likely to cause a recession, research says

By CHRISTOPHER RUGABER
AP Economics Writer

NEW YORK (AP) — Can the Federal Reserve keep raising interest rates and defeat the nation’s worst bout of inflation in 40 years without causing a recession? Not according to a new research paper that concludes that such an “immaculate disinflation” has never happened before. The paper was produced by a group of leading economists, and two Fed officials addressed its conclusions in their own remarks Friday. When inflation soars, as it has for the past two years, the Fed typically responds by raising interest rates, often aggressively, to try to cool the economy and slow price increases. The Fed’s higher rates, in turn, make mortgages, auto loans, credit card borrowing, and business lending more expensive.