EXPLAINER: How do we know when a recession has begun?

By CHRISTOPHER RUGABER
AP Economics Writer

WASHINGTON (AP) — The U.S. economy has contracted for two straight quarters, intensifying fears that it is on the cusp of a recession, if not already in one, barely two years after the pandemic downturn officially ended. Six months of contraction is a longstanding, informal definition of a recession. Yet nothing is simple in the post-pandemic economy, which has confounded policymakers and experts alike since the growth screeched to a halt in March 2020, when COVID-19 struck and 20 million Americans suddenly lost their jobs. While most economists — and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell — say the economy isn’t in a recession yet, many increasingly expect a downturn to start later this year or next.