CSUMB Statistician breaks down mask mandate data

MONTEREY COUNTY, Calif. (KION) On Tuesday, November 16th, the Monterey County Board of Supervisors voted to suspend the indoor mask mandate.

The original decision was brought up to the board once more because there was a fluctuation in the CDC data, dropping down to the moderate tier. According to the CDC, moderate is below the threshold to activate a mask mandate. Currently, CDC shows we're in the substantial tier. According to Dr. Judith Canner, a statistician, there are some key differences between the data for the state, county, and CDC.

"One thing I have yet to figure out for instance is what Monterey is reporting as their cumulative cases of about 49,000 does not actually match what the CPDH data says the CDPH is saying that the cumulative reported cases is about 48,000 I don’t know where those cases are… I have no idea,” Canner said.

Supervisor Adams who previously voted for the mask mandate decided to vote against her original decision stating that she's following the guidance of Dr. Moreno and local county numbers.

'It’s primarily following Dr. Moreno and looking at the differences in the numbers from the CDC to our local numbers and then again children having the opportunity to be vaccinated were three of the drivers that made me change my vote," Adams said.

For Supervisor Alejo, he feels the county should continue to have the mask mandate.

"We know that that we don't have to wait until we have a surge again to do what is right. If we could take some preventative steps, hopefully, we don't get to see more surges in Monterey County," Alejo said.

Despite the differences in the way the county, state, and CDC calculate their data. Canner says the local data that is available to the public shows that we have been trending toward the substantial tier.

"Maybe we should consider a mask mandate because of that and actually have moved into that substantial zone in the last in the last few weeks," Canner said.

However, the agency has more of an accurate set of data. For Canner, it's hard to say but feels there should be more a more holistic approach when dealing with data.

"Accuracy is a funny term to use because the data is never 100 percent accurate. Because, I mean, it's always getting updated. It's cleaned," Canner said.

The board will revisit the decision on December 8th.