Mitch McConnell faces decision over vote to increase stimulus payments to $2,000

All eyes are on Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell on Tuesday.

After the House overwhelmingly voted to both override President Donald Trump’s veto on the National Defense Authorization Act and to pass $2,000 stimulus checks, it’s Senate Republicans’ turn to navigate whether they’re willing to cross Trump in his final days in office.

What to watch

Watch McConnell when he opens the Senate floor. The majority leader notably has not made any public commitments about how he plans to handle $2,000 checks despite the fact that Trump insisted he’d obtained a promise that the process would begin in the US Senate. McConnell’s floor remarks Tuesday could clarify just what direction Senate Republicans are headed.

Bottom line: If McConnell announces plans to bring the bill up for a formal vote, it could still take several days for that vote to occur given the procedural hurdles.

Meanwhile, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer will ask for unanimous consent Tuesday to pass the measure increasing direct payment to $2,000. This is unlikely to pass, as any senator could object (Republican Sen. Ron Johnson of Wisconsin objected to more money for stimulus checks just days ago).

The dynamic

Remember that for months, one of the biggest sticking points in the negotiations over the stimulus was how much the package would cost. Republicans didn’t want to spend more than $1 trillion. Some Republicans didn’t want to spend more than $500 billion. The Covid relief bill that was just signed into law cost around $900 billion.

McConnell knows adding $2,000 checks to this bill would cost hundreds of billions more. In order for it to pass, McConnell would need 12 Republicans to sign on and right now, it’s not clear that many exist. Sen. Marco Rubio, a Republican from Florida, has said he’d back the payments. And Sen. Josh Hawley, a Republican from Missouri, has been a strong proponent of stimulus checks. But, a vote on the issue would undoubtedly divide the Republican conference and force Georgia Sens. Kelly Loeffler and David Perdue to vote on the issue just days ahead of their runoff election. It would also expose members who vote no to the ire of the President, who has never taken kindly to being crossed.

Both Loeffler and Perdue said Tuesday they would support increasing direct stimulus payments to $2,000.

“President ⁦‪@realDonaldTrump⁩ is right — I support this push for $2,000 in direct relief for the American people,” Perdue tweeted.

“I’ve stood by the President 100% of the time, I’m proud to do that,” Loeffler told Fox News on Tuesday in response to a question about providing $2,000 payments, a position President Trump supports. “I’ve said absolutely, we need to get relief to Americans now, and I will support that.” When asked directly by CNN at an event later Tuesday if she would support increasing the direct payments to $2,000, Loeffler responded, “I said I would support it.”

A vote for $2,000 checks could also boost Perdue and Loeffler in their races. The provision is popular. And, even if the measure didn’t pass, putting it on the floor would demonstrate to the President that McConnell tried, but the votes just weren’t there. McConnell, as usual, has been seeking the input of his members.

It’s also possible, and some Democratic aides CNN has spoken with are fearful that McConnell could tie a vote on $2,000 checks to a less popular provision making it tougher for Democrats to vote for. Remember, that Trump argued he’d gotten assurances that the Senate would also take up a repeal of Section 230, which protects web companies from liability for what third party users post on their sites. That would scramble party lines and make a vote on $2,000 checks much harder for Democrats to swallow.

NDAA

McConnell had hoped to bring up the NDAA override vote Wednesday. But, Vermont Independent Sen. Bernie Sanders has said he will block the measure unless McConnell brings up $2,000 checks.

Again, we don’t know what McConnell’s plans are on checks yet, but if he doesn’t make a promise to bring them to the floor, Sanders could force McConnell to run out the clock until New Year’s Day on the NDAA veto override vote. Sources expect the votes will be there to override the NDAA in the Senate. It’s just a matter of when. A delay could keep Loeffler and Perdue off the campaign trail just days ahead of their runoffs.

This story has been updated with additional developments Tuesday.